计及相关性的风电场风速相依结构建模及其对发输电系统可靠性的影响

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1、上海交通大学硕士学位论文tailcorrelationforwindspeedfrommultiplewindfarms.Lastly,basedonthepoweroutputfunctionofthewind-turbine,areliabilityevaluationmodelofGenerationandTransmissionsystemcontainingmultiplewindfarmsisproposedonthebasisofMonteCarlosimulationmethod,whi

2、chcanbeusedtoconsiderthenegativeeffectofwindfarmandtheoutageofwindturbinegenerators.Theresultsshowthatthemodelcanbedirectlyusedtoevaluatethereliabilityeffectonthepowersystemscontainingwindfarms.KEYWORDS:windspeedmodel，correlation，Copulafunction，Mixture-C

3、opulafunction，reliabilityassessmentIV万方数据上海交通大学硕士学位论文目录摘要·································································································IABSTRACT·······················································································III第

4、1章绪论·······················································································11.1课题背景和研究意义····································································11.1.1风能的利用及其背景·······························································11.1

5、.2风电并网存在的问题·······························································21.2国内外研究现状··········································································21.2.1风电场风速/出力的概率分布·····················································21.2.2含风电场的发输电系统可靠性评估··

6、···········································31.3本文主要内容·············································································4第2章单风电场风速概率分布建模·························································52.1引言·············································

7、············································52.2风能资源的特征··········································································52.3参数估计法················································································72.4非参数估计法··························

8、···················································92.4.1经验密度函数·······································································102.4.2核密度估计··········································································10