在线广告：对增长放缓的较低估计

《在线广告：对增长放缓的较低估计》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、ABGlobalResearch9October2018ChinaInternetSectorEquitiesChinaInternetServicesJerryLiuAnalystjerry.liu@ubs.com+852-29717493ZhijingLiuAnalystS1460515120001zhijing.liu@ubssecurities.com+86-213-8668847WeiXiongAssociatewei.xiong@ubssecurities.com+86-213-8668883NavinKillaAnalystnavin.killa@

2、ubs.com+852-29717594Onlineads:lowerestimatesonslowergrowth-feedadsabrightspot;preferAlibabaandQutoutiaoGrowthintheadmarketandforsomeplatformsmaydisappointinvestorsWearenowmorenegativeonthegrowthoutlookforChina’sinternetadvertisingmarketafterspeakingwithadagenciesandmanagementteamsand

3、analysingUBSEvidenceLabandthird-partydataonthesector.WelowerourestimatesforTencentforbothadsandgaming(LINK)andforBaiduinadsandtoreflectitsGlobalDUandfinancialservicegroupspinoffs(LINK).ThoughwetrimmedourFY19growthforecastsforitscustomermanagementrevenue,weremainmostpositiveonAlibabaa

4、sitwillsoonlaunchrecommendationfeedads(LINK).WeinitiateonQutoutiaowithaBuyrating,asitfocusespurelyonfeedads(LINK).Macroandregulationarepressuringthemarket,butfeedadsareabrightspotThemacrosituationhasconcernedsomeadvertisersin2018.Onlineads(60%ofthemarket),arehighlycorrelatedwithGDPgr

5、owth(69%forthepast10years).Regulatoryheadwindshaveslowedgrowthinseveralsectorsthatpreviouslyadvertisedheavily,suchasP2Pfinancing,gaming,andecommerce.Weexpectonlineadgrowthtoslowfrom31%in2018to20%in2020(iResearchexpects25%),butwestillbelievefeedadscouldgrowbyabout50%intwoyears,toRmb27

6、5bnby2020(iResearch),withinwhichmobilenewsfeedadscouldgrow30%-plus,toRmb100bn(Analysys).Platformsareleveragingmoreuserdataandanalyticstopushpersonalizedcontentandads.Competitionisalsorising,andBytedanceistakingsignificantsharein2018Mostplatformshaveincreasedtheiradloadsrecently,orwil

7、ldososoon,includingTencent‘sMomentsandminiprograms,Alibaba'srecommendationfeeds(productsrecommendedonTaobao/Tmallbasedonusers’interests),Baidu‘snewsfeed(andsoonsmartminiprograms),andmultipleproductsinWeibo.ThisadditionaladinventoryandBytedance'sgrowth(itsrevenuesshouldmorethantripleY

8、oYin2018)are