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1、China’sCurrentAccountandExchangeRateYin-WongCHEUNG,UCSC&HKUMenzieD.CHINN,UW-Madison&NBEREijiFUJII,UniversityofTsukubaNBERConference“China’sGrowingRoleinWorldTrade”August3,2007China’sCurrentAccountSource:IMF,WorldEconomicOutlookApril2007databaseTheValueofCNYSource:IMF,Internationa
2、lFinancialStatistics,author’scalculationsTradeBalanceandForexReservesSource:IMF,InternationalFinancialStatisticsOutlineAnanalysisoftheCNYmisalignmentissueusingthestandarddeviations-from-AbsolutePPPapproachHighlightingthetensionbetweeneconomicandstatisticalsignificanceCloserlookat
3、elasticitiesfromamacroperspectiveTheimportanceofuncertaintyarisesagainExchangerateisimportantbutnotcentralEvaluatingtheExchangeRateExploitingthe“PennEffect”DatafromWorldDevelopmentIndicators,1971-2005VintagesofWDImatter(theChinapathissubstantiallydifferentthanourpreviouspaper)The
4、risinPPPterms,theyinUSD,PPPtermsThe“PennEffect”EstimatedThe“PennEffect”Illustrated(I)The“PennEffect”Illustrated(II)ObservationsThe2005CNYisabout1.5standarderrorsfromconditionalmean,sostatisticallynotmisalignedButthepointestimateindicatesa50%(!)undervaluation(inlogterms)Ifonechang
5、esthedefinitionofundervaluationas(e.g.)3consecutiveyearsofmisalignment,notmuchchangessinceρ≈0.95InvestigatingChina’sTradeElasticitiesMultilateralTradeElasticitiesStandardstaticimperfectsubstitutesapproach.Analysisconductedonquarterlyfrequency,over1993-06period.Sampleperiodlargely
6、dictatedbydataavailability(changesindatacollection).y,y*arerealGDP,qisCPIdeflated,zissupplyvariable,wadditionaldemandfactorChineseExportsTwo(Recurring)ProblemsChineseexportdatadon’tmatchrest-of-worldimportdata,viceversaNoChinesedeflators,pre-2005WerelyontheChinesedataformultilate
7、ralexports,importsWetryvariousproxiesasdeflatorsProxiesforExportDeflatorsObservationsHoldingzconstantresultsinreallyhighincomeelasticityestimates,wrongsignonexchangerate.Foraggregateexports,onlyzmatters.Forordinaryexports,incomeisinsignificant,whileotherscomeinsignificantlyProces
8、singandpartsexportsfitquitewellAllresult
