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1、FrederickL.Brancati,MD,MHSProfessorofMedicine&EpidemiologyDirector,DivisionofGeneralInternalMedicineOslerJournalClub2006VisitHopkinsGIMathttp://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gimProspectiveCohortStudiesBackgroundPhysicalactivitylowerCVDriskDHHSrecommendslife-longpursuitsSportsdifferinsustainabil
2、ityCVDbenefitsofindividualsportsuncertainTheJohnsHopkinsPrecursorsStudyOver1300students(mainlywhitemen)fromtheJHUSOMClassesof1948-64.Baselinedatacollectedinpersoninmedicalschool.Follow-updatacollectedbyyearlymailedquestionnairesthereafter.CarolineThomas,MDTheJohnsHopkinsPrecursorsStudyHypo
3、thesis:TennisabilityinyouthpredictslowerCVDriskinmiddleageDesign:ProspectivecohortstudySetting:JohnsHopkinsPrecursorsStudyParticipants:1019malemedicalstudentsDataCollection:Extensiveinterviewandphysicalassessmentatbaseline(early20s);annualmailedfollow-upquestionnairesOutcome:IncidentCVD,in
4、cludingMI,CHD,CABGorPTCA,hypertensiveheartdisease,heartfailure,&cerebrovasculardiseaseAnalysis:Kaplan-Meier,CoxmodelsOutlineAssessmentofSportsAbilityHowwouldyourateyouroverallabilityintennis(golf,football,baseball,basketball)duringandbeforemedicalschool?NoabilityPoororfairabilityGoodorexce
5、llentabilityNodataonfrequency,intensity,orsubsequentparticipationResultsConclusions/ImplicationsSelf-describedtennisabilityinyoungadulthoodpredictslowerCVDriskinmiddleageAssociationoftennistolowerriskisGraded(i.e.dose-response)IndependentofmanypossibleconfoundersSpecifictotennis(ashypothes
6、ized)SuggestspromotionoftennisasameanstoreduceCVDriskStrengthsProspectivedesignLong-termfollow-upMultiavariateanalysisBlindedassessmentofCVDWeaknessesObservationalstudiescan’tprovecausalityResidualconfoundingislikelyAssessmentofexposurewassuboptimalAbility,notactivitySinglepoint,notrepeate
7、dmeasuresSelf-assessed,notobjectiveSamplelimitsgeneralizabilityDiscussionPointsWhat’sspecialaboutacohortstudy?Whatarecommonobstacles?Canitbeusedforhousestaffresearch?Caniteverbesufficienttochangepractice?Howdocohortstudiesrelatetooutcomesresearch?TaxonomyofDes