z模型和上公司st

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1、Z模型与上市公司ST摘要随着我国股票市场的发展完善、企业管理模式的进步、投资者理财观念的升级，证券市场上的各个主体对于能及早、准确的预测上市公司发生财务困境的需求越来越强烈。本文正是将国外非常有名的财务困境预测模型Z模型应用到我国的股票市场。由于在国内股票交易中实行的特殊政策，通常认为被实行特别处理（ST或*ST）就是公司出现财务困境的标志。因此，本文通过选取46家ST（或*ST）样本公司并对它们进行静态、动态的分析，归纳它们在被实行特别处理前五年间Z值的变化特点，找出支持这些特点的因素，从而验证了Z模型对于我国现行股

2、市上市公司发生ST具有良好的预测能力和适用性。本文的研究结论对于预测公司发生财务困境，有着很好的借鉴和参考价值，以此不同程度的满足市场上各参与者的需求。关键词：财务困境，预测，Z模型，STZ-scoreModelandListedcorporation(ST)inChinaStockMarketAbstractAsthedevelopmentofourstockmarket,theimprovementofmanagementstyleandtheescalationofinvestors’financingnotio

3、n,thedemandsofbetimesandaccuratelypredictingfinancialproblembecomestrongerandstronger.ThisdissertationtriestoapplyZ-scoremodel,whichisafamousfinancialproblempredictionmodel,inChinastockmarket.SpecialTreat(STor*ST)isconsideredasthesymboloffinancialproblemaccordin

4、gtothenationalspecificpoliciesonsecuritiesexchange.So,inselectionof46STcompanies’cases,thisdissertationmakesstaticanalysisanddemonstrativeanalysis,citestheircharactersinfiveyearsbeforetheirST,findsthefactorswhichsupportthesecharactersandthenvalidatesthegoodpredi

5、ctionabilityofZ-scoremodelinChinastockmarket.Thisconclusionishelpfulforthepredictionoffinancialproblem,andthenmeetstherequirementsofmarketparticipatorsmoreorless.Keywords:financialproblem,prediction,Z-scoremodel,ST目录一、序言··········································

6、········1二、文献回顾··············································1三、Z模型介绍············································2四、研究设计··············································3（一）样本选择············································3（二）指标定义····································

7、········3（三）数据描述············································4五、实证检验··············································4（一）动态比较及结果······································4（二）Z模型的适用性分析··································7六、结论与局限性··········································9（

8、一）结论················································9（二）局限性与建议········································9附录·····················································10资料来源和参