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1、TheGlobalFoodCrisisResponseProgram(GFRP) attheWorldBankChristopherDelgadoStrategyandPolicyAdviserAgriculturalandRuralDevelopmentDepartmentECOSOCBriefing,NewYork,July7,20081StrategicContext: ThestakesareveryhighThedoublingormoreoffoodandfuelpricesoverthepast2yearsispushing100millionp
2、eopleintopoverty,reversingthegainsofthelastdecadeFormorethan2billionpeople,thesuddenriseinfoodpricesbringsdailystruggle,sacrifice,andevenconcernsforsurvivalRisingfoodpricesriskderailingrecentgainsinreducingmalnutrition,threateningtosapnotonlythisgenerationbutthegenerationtocomeGover
3、nmentsarejustifiablyconcernedthatcivilunrestwillescalate,asithasinthecitiesofoverthreedozencountriestodate2StrategicContext: ThestakesareveryhighHighfoodpricesareexpectedtostayhigh(fall2007levels)foronetotwoyears(andstayabove2004levelsinrealtermsuntilatleast2015)Increasedfoodpricevo
4、latilityexpectedtocontinueforthepresumablefutureIncreasedinputpriceslinkedtooilamajorconcern,likelytodiscouragesmallholderswhosupplymostofthefoodindevelopingcountriesCountriesareintheprocessofrevertingtothefoodpoliciesofthe1970s(foodself-sufficiencyatanycost,costlystrategicgrainrese
5、rves,reversalofdiversificationpolicies,etc)whichwouldeventuallybeharmfultobothpovertyalleviationandfoodsecurity3Whyhavefoodpricesrisen?--DemandFundamentalsSupplyandDemandSustainedfooddemandfromemergingmarkets(ofthe73millionnetadditionalpersonsintheglobalpopulationeachyear,97.5%arein
6、developingcountries)Dietchanges,fromgraintomorediversifieddiet,meatsanddairywithhigherderiveddemandforgrainsandoilseedsBiofuelmandates=>demandshift,particularlyintheUnitedStates(corn-basedethanol),andEurope(rapeseedforbiodiesel),Argentina(soybeansforbiodiesel)4Whyhavefoodpricesrisen
7、?--Supplycompetitionforlandfrombiofuels,esp.inOECDincreasingproductioncosts:sharplyincreasingcostsofenergy,transport,andfertilizer,especiallysevereinpoorlandlockedcountriesdrought,flooding,pestsanddiseaseinkeygrainregions:theseshocks,whichhavealwaysbeenpartofagriculture,arehardtodea
8、lwithwhenstocksarel
