美股保险业-财产险2018年Q2盈利总结：商业价格优于预期，但亏损趋势仍然令人担忧

《美股保险业-财产险2018年Q2盈利总结：商业价格优于预期，但亏损趋势仍然令人担忧》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、ABGlobalResearch30July2018P&CInsuranceEarningsWrapNorthAmerica2Q18:CommercialpricingcommentarybetterthanexpectedbutlosstrendremainsaconcernP&Cre/insurersandbrokersbeatvs.missscore:8to2Ofthecompanieswetrack,8beatconsensusestimatesbymorethan2.5%while2missedbymoretha

2、n2.5%.Catastrophelosseshavegenerallycomeinalittlehigherthanexpectedforprimaryinsurers,butreservereleaseshaveheldupandpricingcommentaryhasbeeninlinewithtoalittlebetterthanexpectations.Performancehasbeenmixedwiththebrokersunderperformingsincereportingdespitestrongor

3、ganicrevenuegrowth.FortheQTD,theUBSP&CIndexhasoutperformedtheS&P500,up5.3%comparedto3.7%forthemarket.Estimatesgenerallyuponearningsbeats,higherinvestmentyieldsSofarthisearningsseason,weraisedboth2018and2019EPSestimatesfor6companies.Welowered2018estimatesfor3compan

4、iesand2019estimatesfor4.Changesfor2018wereprimarilydrivenbyearningsbeatsandhigherinvestmentyields,whichcarriedthroughto2019numbers(Figure8).Lowerestimatesweregenerallydrivenbymissesandlowerthanexpectedunderlyingunderwritingmargins.Pricingcommentarybetterthanexpect

5、edinthequarterCommerciallinespricingcommentarycominginmodestlybetterthanexpected,improvingfrom1Q18.Reinsuranceratesremaindisappointing,butinlinewithexpectationsheadingintothepeakmonthsoftheAtlanticHurricaneseason.Losscosttrendsareanareatokeepaneyeonwithsomeinsurer

6、sindicatingthatlosscostsareaccelerating,whichcouldoffsetanyimprovementsinpricing.Investmentyieldswereabrightspotasnewmoneyyieldsinexcessofbookyieldsareleadingtoimprovinginvestmentincome.PositiveonACGLheadingintonextweekForACGL,weseesharebuybackbeinghigherthanexpec

7、tationscoupledwithimprovedinvestmentyields(ithasamongthelowestportfoliodurations)drivingupwardestimaterevisions.Mortgageinsurershavealsoreportedfavorableunderwritingresultssofarthisquarter.Figure1:EarningscalendarfornextweekInsurance,Full-LineEquitiesBrianMeredit

8、hAnalystbrian.meredith@ubs.com+1-212-7132492JasonEfkemanAssociateAnalystjason.efkeman@ubs.com+1-212-7134413TickerRatingPriceTargetUBSE2Q18EPSConsensus%D