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1、MMAugust7,201809:09PMGMTBerkshireHathawayInc&SouthwestAirlinesShouldBRKShowMoreLUV?InvestorshaveflirtedwithaBRK-LUVcombinationforsometime.OurscreenforpotentialairlineacquisitionsbyBRKsuggestsLUVwouldbeagoodstrategicfit.Basedonhistory,therecouldbe20-40%upsideinLUVsha
2、res,whileforBRKwesee7-8%potentialEPSaccretionand6-7%cashreturn.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.
3、InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.MMBerkshireHathawayInc&SouthwestAirlinesShouldBRKShowMoreLUV?In
4、vestorshaveflirtedwithaBRK-LUVcombinationforsometime.OurscreenforpotentialairlineacquisitionsbyBRKsuggestsLUVwouldbeagoodstrategicfit.Basedonhistory,therecouldbe20-40%upsideinLUVshares,whileforBRKwesee7-8%potentialEPSaccretionand6-7%cashreturn.MMWethinkahypothetical
5、acquisitionofSouthwestAirlinescouldbeastrategicfitforBerkshireHathaway.Inrecentyears,BerkshirehasexhibitedanotableshiftintoneontheUSAirlinesandisnowatop3shareholderoftheBigFourUScarriers,includingSouthwest.Accordingly,mediareports(Forbes,CNN,etc.)havediscussedapos-s
6、ibleacquisitionbyBerkshire.WehavenoknowledgeofanyM&Adiscussionsandtheairlineshavenotcommented.Thatsaid,ourscreenofpotentialairlineacquisitionsbyBerkshiresuggestsSouth-westcouldfitwellintoBerkshire'sfamilygivenitsacquisitioncriteria,ownershipofcapital-intensivebusine
7、sses,anddeployable$100b+cashbalance.TheadvantagesofbeingpartoftheBerkshirefamilycouldbecompelling.Specifically,webelievethereare5keyreasonsthatlargelyrevolvearoundcreatinglong-termvaluewithlessfocusonnearterm“noise”:1)movingawayfrommonthly/quarterlyunitrev-enuerepor
8、ting;2)takingfurtheradvantageofitsfinancialstrength;3)lessfocusonsupportingindustrycapacitydiscipline;4)acceler-atingfleetinvestment;and5)
