银行业：金融政策未来，货币偏松，监管偏严

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1、一、央行的“宽货币、宽信贷额度”作用有限n政策调整的背景：主动信用收缩。银行等金融机构的风险偏好下降；此时的金融机构会体现为主动去杠杆，主动信用收缩。金融机构开始从“被动”信用收缩，到“主动”信用收缩，“主动”信用收缩是非线性、不可控的，容易引起金融风险事件，对经济负面压力大。图表：银行在三个阶段的行为变化资料来源：中泰证券研究所n为鼓励放贷、央行对MPA参数调整，但MPA考核不是影响信贷投放主因。部分城商行、农商行当前广义信贷增速下对应的宏观审慎资本充足率超标实际资本充足率；未超标银行信贷增速远低于资本充足率可支撑的上限，由此可见，MPA并不是影响银行信贷投放的主要因素。图

2、表：MPA考核不是影响信贷投放主因（2017）宏观审慎资本充足率资本充资本充足资本充足广义足率对βi=0.4βi=0.8资本充足率率-Ci*（βi=0.4）率-Ci*（βi=0.8）信贷增速应信贷增速上限工行10.71%10.72%15.14%4.43%4.42%9.5%20.60%建行9.03%7.43%15.50%6.47%8.07%5.5%21.65%农行10.64%10.68%13.74%3.10%3.06%9.6%17.36%中行10.35%10.14%14.19%3.84%4.05%9.0%18.57%交行10.43%10.49%14.00%3.57%3.51%9

3、.6%18.57%招行8.10%5.85%15.48%7.38%9.63%3.9%22.29%中信5.78%1.23%11.65%5.87%10.42%-1.9%12.78%浦发8.49%6.63%12.02%3.53%5.39%4.8%13.68%民生5.46%0.58%11.85%6.39%11.27%-2.7%13.28%兴业8.90%7.46%12.19%3.29%4.73%5.9%14.11%光大4.91%-0.48%13.49%8.58%13.97%-4.0%17.48%华夏8.70%7.14%12.37%3.67%5.23%5.6%14.77%平安7.59%4.

4、91%11.20%3.61%6.29%2.8%11.82%北京11.29%12.33%12.41%1.12%0.08%12.1%14.90%南京9.47%8.71%12.93%3.46%4.22%7.6%16.26%宁波12.73%15.24%13.58%0.85%-1.66%15.8%17.90%江苏10.63%11.02%12.62%1.99%1.60%10.5%15.45%贵阳16.27%22.33%11.56%-4.71%-10.77%24.7%12.88%杭州10.12%10.02%14.30%4.18%4.28%9.2%19.70%上海7.94%5.64%14.3

5、3%6.39%8.69%3.8%19.73%成都14.30%18.39%13.66%-0.64%-4.73%19.7%18.13%江阴9.25%8.29%14.14%4.89%5.85%7.1%19.34%无锡10.75%11.30%14.12%3.37%2.82%10.9%19.29%常熟11.49%12.77%12.97%1.48%0.20%12.7%16.42%吴江14.37%18.54%13.42%-0.95%-5.12%19.9%17.55%张家港12.35%14.49%12.93%0.58%-1.56%14.9%16.32%资料来源：中泰证券研究所nMPA参数的调

6、整幅度有限，监管指标层层镶嵌，只调节一两个指标对信贷增量影响有限。我们在仅考虑MPA监管约束的信贷增速上限要求下，测算了国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行在βi=0.4时，αi可分别下调至0.8、0.6、0.7、0.7。图表：上市银行不同参数值对应的广义信贷同比增速αi=1αi=0.9αi=0.8αi=0.7αi=0.6αi=0.5工商银行20.60%24.81%30.06%36.82%45.83%58.45%建设银行21.66%25.96%31.34%38.26%47.49%60.41%农业银行17.37%21.18%25.95%32.09%40.27%51.72%中国银行18

7、.58%22.52%27.44%33.78%42.23%54.05%交通银行18.57%22.46%27.32%33.57%41.90%53.57%招商银行22.28%26.58%31.95%38.86%48.08%60.98%中信银行12.78%16.02%20.06%25.26%32.20%41.91%浦发银行13.67%17.01%21.18%26.55%33.70%43.72%民生银行13.28%16.57%20.68%25.97%33.03%42.90%兴业银行14.10%17.49%21.7