美国硬零售：家庭装修支出正在发生什 么

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1、ABGlobalResearch25July2018UBSEvidenceLab:U.S.HardlinesRetailHD/LOW:WhatishappeningwithHomeImprovementSpending,Vol.XVUBSEvidenceLabstudiespointtorecentstrengthforHDandLOWThefifteentheditionofourquarterlyHousingIntentionssurvey(of2kadults)showsthat63%ofhomeownersintendtoundertakeaHIprojectinthenext3mo

2、nths,up300bpsYoY.Thisisoneofthehighestreadingsacrossthehistoryofoursurvey.Further,43%anticipatespendingprimarilyatHD(up400bpsYoY).ConsiderationforLOWwasflatYoYat23%whileforAMZN&WMTitdeclined-200bps&-100bpsrespectively.ThebullishreadingfromoursurveyresultsiscorroboratedbyourSpendTracker(basedonmillio

3、nsofcreditanddebitcardtransactions).ThedatashowsspendinggrowthatHDwasup6.4%YoYonavginMay&June(vs.4.7%in1Q).ForLOW,consumerspendingwasup7.3%YoYthusfarin2Q(vs.5.9%in1Q).Ourtrackerhashad73%and53%correlationswithHDandLOW'sUSSSS,respectively.Overall,theseresultssupportourbullishstanceonthestocks.WehavePT

4、sof$225forHD(22xCY'19EEPS)&$115forLOW(19xCY'19EEPS).LOWisimprovingitscustomerperceptionbutstillhasmoreworktodoWebelievetheLOW'snewmanagementteamhasroomtoimproveonseveralkeyattributes.Forinstance,oursurveyindicatesthat29%ofHDshopperspreferredshoppingatHDduetoasuperiorassortment(28%forLOW).LOWhasnarro

5、weditsgapwithHDonassortmentto100bps(vs.300bpsinMarch).Thatsaid,thegapbetweenHD&LOWremainedconsistentat300bpsamongthosehighlightingconvenienceasakeyfactor.Separately,15%ofLOWshoppersnotedstoreproximityastheprimaryreasonforshopping(13%forHD).WebelieveLOWneedstoimproveitsperceptiononmerchandisingtonarr

6、owthecomp&valuationgapwithHD.OursurveyindicatescustomerinterestintheappliancescategoryisstrongSpecifically,11%ofhomeownersintendtoaddorreplacemajorappliancesinthenext3months.Thisrepresentsa50bpsYoYincrease(vs.YoYdeclineswitnessedinourpriorfewsurveys).Appliancesshipmentshavebeensoftrecentlyandthereis

7、significantdebateonhowmuchofithasbeendrivenbytariffs/priceincreasesvs.temporaryfactorssuchasinventorybuild-upinadvanceofthecostincreases.Webelieverisingcustomerinterest(asevidencedbyourdata)shouldsupp