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1、公司财务困境预测：普拉特思考选择为基础的抽样偏差外文翻译外文翻译PredictingCorporateFinancialDistress:ReflectionsonChoice-BasedSampleBiasMaterialSource:EngineeringandTechnology2009Author:HarlanD.PlattAssessingthefinancialstrengthofcompanieshastraditionallybeenthedomainofpartiesexternaltothefi
2、rm,suchasinvestors,creditors,auditors,governmentregulators,andotherstakeholders.Morerecently,becausecompetitionhasspawnedintimaterelationshipsbetweenmanufacturersandtheircomponentsuppliers,nowmanufacturersareconcernedaboutthefinancialhealthoftheirsuppliersandv
3、iceversa.Fromasupplychainmanagementperspective,ifamanufacturercanhelponeofitssuppliersameliorateproblemsandtherebyavoidbankruptcy,itisinbothparties'interesttodoso.Relianceonreactivedistresssignalssuchasdelayedshipments,problemswithproductquality,warningsfromth
4、esupplier'sbank,orobservationsmadeduringcompanyvisitstoindicatenear-termfinancialdifficultiesreducestheoptionsandthetimeavailabletoactandremedythesituationAnearlywarningsystemmodelthatanticipatesfinancialdistressofsupplierfirmsprovidesmanagementofpurchasingcom
5、panieswithapowerfultooltohelpidentifyand,itishoped,rectifyproblemsbeforetheyreachacrisis.Becauseoflong-termcontractswithselectedandcertifiedsuppliers,largemanufacturersareincreasinglyinterestedinthefinancialhealthofthesesuppliersinordertoavoiddisruptiontotheir
6、ownproductionanddistributionschedules.Financialdistressisdefinedasalatestageofcorporatedeclinethatprecedesmorecataclysmiceventssuchasbankruptcyorliquidation.Informationthatafirmisapproachingdistresscanprecipitatemanagerialactionstoforestallproblemsbeforetheyoc
7、cur,caninviteamergerortakeoverbyamoresolventorbetter-managedenterprise,andcanprovideanearlywarningofpossiblefuturebankruptcy.Whilethereisabundantliteraturedescribingpredictionmodelsofcorporatebankruptcy,fewresearcheffortshavesoughttopredictcorporatefinancialdi
8、stress.Thelackofworkonfinancialdistressresultsinpartfromdifficultyindefiningobjectivelytheonsetoffinancialdistress.Bycontrast,thebankruptcydateisdefinitiveandfinancialdatapriortoth
