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1、重点上市公司业绩预测及评级（Keylistedcompaniesperformanceforecastandrating）KeylistedcompaniesperformanceforecastandratingStockabbreviationCode2005EPS2006EPSInvestmentratingGVankeA000002ZeropointthreefourZeropointfoursixPrudentoverweightChinaMerchantsPropertyDevelopment000024ZeropointseventwoZeropointnin
2、enineHoldingsGemdaleSixhundredthousandthreehundredandeighty-threeZeropointfivezeroZeropointsixsixPrudentoverweightOverseasChinesetown000069ZeropointfoureightOnepointzeroonePrudentoverweightHUAFAGSixhundredthousandthreehundredandtwenty-fiveZeropointthreenineZeropointfivezeroHoldingsQixiacon
3、structionSixhundredthousandfivehundredandthirty-threeZeropointsevenzeroOnepointzerofourPrudentoverweightTherecentindustryindexrelativetotheShanghaiCompositeIndexTrendDatasource:TXsystemAnalyst:Blazes(0755)83516185Xiangh@cgws.comMainpoints：Thisisaprominentfeatureoftherealestateregulationfro
4、msupplyanddemandtwoaspectsoftwo-wayregulation.Forthisregulation,ourbasicpointofviewisthatthegovernment'sstartingpointistoensurethestabilityoftherealestateindustrydevelopmentoriented,Italyisnotsuppressed.Moreidealsituationisthatthefuturepricesremainstablegrowth,asmallnumberofoverheatedareas
5、priceshavebeenadjusted.Theimpactofregulatorypolicieshasbeenreflected.Housingprices,fromtheurbanpointofview,thetwoquarterof05,up8%,thethreequarterrose3.1%,indicatingthatpricesrosesteadilydown.Atthesametime,thegrowthrateofrealestateinvestmentalsofellslightly,2003investmentgrowthof29.9%,2004w
6、as28.1%,thefirst11monthsof2005,investmentgrowthfellto22.2%yearonyear.Ofcourse,theperformanceofdifferentregionalmarketsvaries.Itisexpectedthatin2006thecountrywillcontinuetostabilizetheexistingrealestateregulatorypolicies.Inviewofthecurrentsituation,thenationalnewregulatorypolicywillnotbeint
7、roducedtemporarily.06years,realestateinvestmentgrowthisexpectedtoremainat05yearsoflevel,thepossibilityoffallingbetween20%-25%islarger.Prices,taxpolicyrestrictionsandminimumsizecontroleffectsofspeculativedemandandpassivedemandwillcontinuetoreducetherealestate,t
