the role of the forecasting process in improving forecast accuracy and operational performance

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1、Int.J.ProductionEconomics131(2011)204–214ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectInt.J.ProductionEconomicsjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpeTheroleoftheforecastingprocessinimprovingforecastaccuracyandoperationalperformanceab,nPamelaDanese,MatteoKalchschmidtaDepartmentofManagementandEngin

2、eering,UniversityofPadova,StradellaS.Nicola,3,36100Vicenza,ItalybDepartmentofEconomicsandTechnologyManagement,UniversitadegliStudidiBergamo,VialeMarconi5,24044Dalmine(BG),ItalyarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Severaloperationsdecisionsarebasedonproperforecastoffuturedemand.Forthisreason,Recei

3、ved15April2008manufacturingcompaniesconsiderforecastingacrucialprocessforeffectivelyguidingseveralactivitiesAccepted7September2010andresearchhasdevotedparticularattentiontothisissue.ThispaperinvestigatestheimpactofhowAvailableonline16September2010forecastingisconductedonforecastaccuracyandopera

4、tionalperformances(i.e.costanddeliveryKeywords:performances).Attentionisherepaidonthreefactorsthatcharacterizetheforecastingprocess:Demandforecastingwhetherstructuredtechniquesareadopted,whetherinformationfromdifferentsourcesiscollectedtoGlobalmanufacturingresearchgroupelaborateforecasts,andthe

5、extenttowhichforecastingisusedtosupportdecision-makingprocesses.HierarchicalregressionAnalysesareconductedbymeansofdataprovidedbythefourtheditionoftheGlobalManufacturingForecastaccuracyResearchGroupsurvey.Datawascollectedfrom343companiesbelongingtoseveralmanufacturingindustriesfromsixdifferentc

6、ountries.Resultsshowthatcompaniesadoptingastructuredforecastingprocesscanimprovetheiroperationalperformancesnotsimplybecauseforecastaccuracyincreases.Thispaperhighlightstheimportanceofaproperforecasting-processdesign,thatshouldbecoherentwithhowusersintendtoexploitforecastresultsandwiththeaimtha

7、tshouldbeachieved,thatisnotnecessarilyimprovingforecastaccuracy.&2010ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.1.Introductionshouldconsideralsoothercrucialtopicslinkedtohowtheforecastingprocessismanagedandorganized(Armstrong,1987;Demandforeca