亚太-材料行业-商品价格疲软和贸易关税下降情况下的主要观点

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1、July23,201811:03PMGMT3AsiaPacificMaterialsOurCurrentTopIdeasAmidWeakerCommodityPricesandTradeTariffsMetalpriceshaveslumpedacrosstheboardasconcernsgrowabouttheimpactoftradetensions.Underthecurrentmacroenvironment,weoutlineourtopOverweightandUnderweightcalls.MORGA

2、NSTANLEYMUFGSECURITIESCO.,LTD.+YuShirakawaEQUITYANALYSTMORGANSTANLEYINDIACOMPANYPRIVATELIMITED+AshishJainEQUITYANALYST3China–Overweightsteel&cement,underweightcopper:WeexpectthesupplyAshish.G.Jain@morganstanley.com03impactforsteelandcementfromenvironmentalcontr

3、olswillhelpsupportpricesathighlevelsduetothelargerareaimpactedunderChina'snew2018-MORGANSTANLEYMUFGSECURITIESCO.,LTD.+TakatoWatabeEQUITYANALYST32020pollutioncontrolplan.WebelievesteelandcementcompanyearningsareTakato.Watabe@morganstanleymufg.com3lesscyclicalan

4、dmoresustainablethanthemarketthinks,duetosupplydiscipline.Copperislikelytobeusedasamacroplayaswesawinpastcycles.GreaterChinaMaterialsAsiaPacific3OurcurrenttopOWpicksareBaosteel,andA&HsharesofbothAngangandIndustryViewAttractive3AnhuiConch.KeyUWpicksareJiangxiCo

5、pperAsharesandZijinHsharesAustraliaMaterialsAsiaPacific3(downgradedtoUW).IndustryViewIn-Line3Australia–OverweightCoal,mineralsandsandindividualstockopportunities,underweightnickel:MineralResources(withanexpansionstrategyinlithium)isIndiaMaterialsAsiaPacificIn

6、dustryViewIn-Line3akeyOWpickdespiteournegativeviewonlithium,largelyduetovaluationsupport(seehere).OtherOWcallsincludeIluka,drivenbymineralsandsbeingaSteelJapan3latecyclecommoditywhereweexpectfurtherpricingtailwinds.Whitehavencoalstillshowsvaluationsupportandcata

7、lystsapproaching.OurkeyUWisWesternAreasinthenickelspace,drivenbydownsiderisktothenickelprice(seehere)andalackofvaluationsupport.Japan–Overweightsteel&oil,UWMitsubishiMaterialsstock:Inarisk-offIndustryViewNewOld%ChgPTNewOldCurcyNewOldPriceTarget%upside/dChangesto

8、EPSownsideto2018RatingExhibit1:SummaryofRatingandPriceTargetChangesAttractive3market,ourinvestmentpreferenceisforsteel&oilovernonferrousstocks.ThemesinF3/19St