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1、DoesGodPlayDice?Thislectureisaboutwhetherwecanpredictthefuture,orwhetheritisarbitraryandrandom.Inancienttimes,theworldmusthaveseemedprettyarbitrary.Disasterssuchasfloodsordiseasesmusthaveseemedtohappenwithoutwarning,orapparentreason.Primitivepeopleattributedsuchnaturalph
2、enomena,toapantheonofgodsandgoddesses,whobehavedinacapriciousandwhimsicalway.Therewasnowaytopredictwhattheywoulddo,andtheonlyhopewastowinfavourbygiftsoractions.Manypeoplestillpartiallysubscribetothisbelief,andtrytomakeapactwithfortune.Theyoffertodocertainthings,ifonlythe
3、ycangetanA-gradeforacourse,orpasstheirdrivingtest.Graduallyhowever,peoplemusthavenoticedcertainregularitiesinthebehaviourofnature.Theseregularitiesweremostobvious,inthemotionoftheheavenlybodiesacrossthesky.Soastronomywasthefirstsciencetobedeveloped.Itwasputonafirmmathema
4、ticalbasisbyNewton,morethan300yearsago,andwestillusehistheoryofgravitytopredictthemotionofalmostallcelestialbodies.Followingtheexampleofastronomy,itwasfoundthatothernaturalphenomenaalsoobeyeddefinitescientificlaws.Thisledtotheideaofscientificdeterminism,whichseemsfirstto
5、havebeenpubliclyexpressedbytheFrenchscientist,Laplace.IthoughtIwouldliketoquoteyouLaplace'sactualwords,soIaskedafriendtotrackthemdown.TheyareinFrenchofcourse,notthatIexpectthatwouldbeanyproblemwiththisaudience.Butthetroubleis,LaplacewasratherlikePrewst,inthathewrotesente
6、ncesofinordinatelengthandcomplexity.SoIhavedecidedtopara-phrasethequotation.Ineffectwhathesaidwas,thatifatonetime,weknewthepositionsandspeedsofalltheparticlesintheuniverse,thenwecouldcalculatetheirbehaviouratanyothertime,inthepastorfuture.Thereisaprobablyapocryphalstory,
7、thatwhenLaplacewasaskedbyNapoleon,howGodfittedintothissystem,hereplied,'Sire,Ihavenotneededthathypothesis.'Idon'tthinkthatLaplacewasclaimingthatGoddidn'texist.ItisjustthatHedoesn'tintervene,tobreakthelawsofScience.Thatmustbethepositionofeveryscientist.Ascientificlaw,isno
8、tascientificlaw,ifitonlyholdswhensomesupernaturalbeing,decidestoletthingsrun,andnotintervene.Theideatha
