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1、DoesGodPlayDice?Thislectureisaboutwhetherwecanpredictthefuture,orwhetheritisarbitraryandrandom.Inancienttimes,theworldmusthaveseemedprettyarbitrary.Disasterssuchasfloodsordiseasesmusthaveseemedtohappenwithoutwarning,orapparentreason.Primitivepeopleattributedsuchnaturalphenomena,toapantheonofgods
2、andgoddesses,whobehavedinacapriciousandwhimsicalway.Therewasnowaytopredictwhattheywoulddo,andtheonlyhopewastowinfavourbygiftsoractions.Manypeoplestillpartiallysubscribetothisbelief,andtrytomakeapactwithfortune.Theyoffertodocertainthings,ifonlytheycangetanA-gradeforacourse,orpasstheirdrivingtest.
3、Graduallyhowever,peoplemusthavenoticedcertainregularitiesinthebehaviourofnature.Theseregularitiesweremostobvious,inthemotionoftheheavenlybodiesacrossthesky.Soastronomywasthefirstsciencetobedeveloped.ItwasputonafirmmathematicalbasisbyNewton,morethan300yearsago,andwestillusehistheoryofgravitytopre
4、dictthemotionofalmostallcelestialbodies.Followingtheexampleofastronomy,itwasfoundthatothernaturalphenomenaalsoobeyeddefinitescientificlaws.Thisledtotheideaofscientificdeterminism,whichseemsfirsttohavebeenpubliclyexpressedbytheFrenchscientist,Laplace.IthoughtIwouldliketoquoteyouLaplace'sactualwor
5、ds,soIaskedafriendtotrackthemdown.TheyareinFrenchofcourse,notthatIexpectthatwouldbeanyproblemwiththisaudience.Butthetroubleis,LaplacewasratherlikePrewst,inthathewrotesentencesofinordinatelengthandcomplexity.SoIhavedecidedtopara-phrasethequotation.Ineffectwhathesaidwas,thatifatonetime,weknewthepo
6、sitionsandspeedsofalltheparticlesintheuniverse,thenwecouldcalculatetheirbehaviouratanyothertime,inthepastorfuture.Thereisaprobablyapocryphalstory,thatwhenLaplacewasaskedbyNapoleon,howGodfittedintothissystem,hereplied,'Sire,Ihavenotneededthathypothesis.'Idon'tthinkthatLaplacewasclaimingthatGoddid
7、n'texist.ItisjustthatHedoesn'tintervene,tobreakthelawsofScience.Thatmustbethepositionofeveryscientist.Ascientificlaw,isnotascientificlaw,ifitonlyholdswhensomesupernaturalbeing,decidestoletthingsrun,andnotintervene.Theideatha
