学位论文-—沿河县人口预测.doc

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1、沿河县人口预测目录题目:沿河县人口预测.................................................4摘要................................................................4ABSTRACT............................................................41引言..............................................................51.1人口预测...

2、...................................................51.2研究背景......................................................52沿河县人口发展趋势概况............................................53问题的描述与分析..................................................64人口的预测方法..........................................

3、..........65模型一............................................................75.1模型的假设....................................................75.2符号的说明....................................................75.3指数增长模型预测—（Malthus）.................................75.4模型的验证情况..................

4、..............................85.5模型的应用与推广..............................................96模型二............................................................96.1模型的假设....................................................96.2符号的说明...................................................106.3阻滞

5、增长模型预测—（Logistic）...............................106.4模型的验证情况...............................................107对两种模型的分析与讨论...........................................117.1模型的分析...................................................117.2模型的讨论..............................................

6、.....118预测沿河县2014-2020年的户籍总人口...............................129预测建议.........................................................12参考文献...........................................................14致谢...............................................................15沿河县人口预测摘要本文是分析沿河县2003-2

7、012年的实际人口及年自然增长率，用简单的合理的两种模型进行预测，预测显示出沿河县2020年的户籍总人口。关键字:预测；人口数量；马尔萨斯；LogisticPredictionofpopulationTujiaAutonomousCountyalongtheriverCollegeofmathematicsandappliedmathematicsHeJinfengABSTRACTThispaperistheanalysisofthenaturalgrowthrateofpopulationandtheactualYanheCounty2003-2012y

8、ear,usingtwokindsofmodelissimplea