美股股票策略-贸易公司：市场相对风险上升

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1、6June26,201802:35PMGMTTradingCompaniesRelativeAppealRisesinRisk-offMarketInarisk-offmarkettradingcoshaveedgeinearningsrecoveryinresources&stabilityfromtheirFCFstrategies.WhileMORGANSTANLEYMUFGSECURITIESCO.,LTD.+HarunobuGorohEQUITYANALYSTHarunobu.Goroh@morganstanleymufg.comYuShirakawa+813

2、6836-5440EQUITYANALYSTYu.Shirakawa@morganstanleymufg.com+8136836-5432TakatoWatabeEQUITYANALYSTTakato.Watabe@morganstanleymufg.com+8136836-5436TradingCompaniesJapan6What'sChangedFROMTOexpectationsforplanstoboostcorporatevalueshouldremainlow,near-terminvestmentfocusisonearnings&roomtoIndus

3、tryViewIn-Line6boostshareholderreturns.Mitsui(clearlaggard)ourtoppick.In-Lineindustryview.Resource-relatedearningshittingabottomisreassuringfromanearningsperspective,andthemarketincreasinglyexpectsFCFlevelstoremainpositive.Butweexpectnear-terminvestmentfocusonscopetoimproveshareholderret

4、urnsinarisk-offmarketwhereitseemscorporatevalueisunlikelytobeenhanced:Earningsintradingcompanyresourcesbusinesseshaverecoveredfollowingarallyinmetalpricesfromlate2017.Weassumethatlowbetasandstabilityofferedbytheirearningswillpositiontradingcompaniesascorestocksamongcyclicalindustries,whic

5、haretypicallydictatedbymarkettrends.IndeedtheshareshavebeenrelativelysolidinthebearmarketpostF3/18results.Meanwhile,westilldonotexpecteachfirm'sbusinessinvestmentstrategiestotranslatetohigherROEexpectations,althoughanindicationoftheexpectedtimingofreturnhas,insomecases,boostedmarketexpect

6、ations.Weexpectstockselectiontofocusontherebeingclarityonhowlonginvestmentswilltaketoproducereturns/earningscontributions,andlikelihoodofshareholderreturnstostrengthenaspartofFCFallocationstrategies.Basedonchangestoourcommoditypriceassumptions&earningsforecasts,weliftPTs.Ourrankingrelativ

7、etocurrentstocklevels:1)Mitsui(OW);2)Itochu(OW);3)Marubeni(EW);4)Sumitomo(EW);5)Mitsubishi(EW);6)Sojitz(EW).Improvementinenergyfields(onhigheroilpriceassumptionsetc)todriveresourcebiz,assumeflat/cheapermetalprices,expectmarkettoreactwelltofirmswithstrongercoreearnin