拉美地区股票策略-股票对外汇风险的敏感性

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1、若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本OverviewbyGuilhermePaiva,RegianeYamanari&ValentinaRodriguezMSCILatamisdown-14%inUSDyear-to-date,andanevenweaker-25%fromitslateJanuarypeak.WeshouldnoteastrongerUSDexplainsalmost100%oftherecordedlossesin2018,aspositiv

2、eearningsgrowthinlocalcurrencyhaspracticallyoffsetthemultiplederatingexperiencedduringtheperiod.Atthecountrylevel,theforeignexchangeratesofbasicallyallthecountrieshaveeitherweakened(Argentina-34%;Brazil-11%;Mexico-5%)orremainedstable(ChileandPeru)thisyear;C

3、olombiahasbeentheonlyexceptionwithastrongercurrency.若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本Exhibit2:Year-to-dateLatamequitieshavesufferedfromastrongerUSD11%11%-5%-13%-12%-17%-26%Latam:MSCIindicesYTDUSDreturnbreakdown45%Exhibit3:Severalinvestorswonderift

4、herecentUSDrallyisfinallyoverUSDvsglobalcurrencies(rebased)EMDMLatam(R.H.)140200若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本30%15%0%-15%-30%-45%-60%PECOCLMXLABZAREPS(LC)ForexP/ETotal1301201101009020102011201220132014201520162017201818617515012510075若出现数据缺

5、失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本Source:BloombergandMorganStanleyResearchSource:BloombergandMorganStanleyResearch若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本Year-to-date,theUSdollarisnowup6%vsabasketofdevelopedcurrencies(DXYindex),up5%vsabasketofemergingc

6、urrencies,andupasignificant15%vsabasketofLatincurrencies(ex-Argentina).SeveralclientscurrentlywonderiftherecentUSDrallyisfinallyover.HansRedeker,ourglobalheadofforexstrategy,arguestheUSDrallyappearstobeclosetoanend.TheUSTreasuryyieldcurvehasrecentlyundergon

7、eabearflatteningmoveafterthereleaseofstrongUSlabormarketdata,industrialrawmaterialpriceshavebrokenhigher,andtheglobaleconomyhasshownincreasingsignsofovercomingtheQ1growthslump.Hence,threefactorsoutofhisfour-factorUSDscorecardmodelarenowpointingtowardsaweake

8、rUSD.Wehave3objectivesinthisreportwiththeUSDgyrationsinthebackground:1.Toprovideanupdatedoutlookfromourglobaleconomicsandforexteams;2.TobrieflydiscussthecurrentviewsfromourforexcolleagueAndresJaimeforL