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ID:12308231
大小:786.83 KB
页数:67页
时间:2018-07-16
《人民币均衡汇率水平研究》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。
1、广西大学硕士学位论文人民币均衡汇率水平研究姓名:赵雪梅申请学位级别:硕士专业:金融学指导教师:岳桂宁20090605STUDYOFRMB’SEQUILIBRIUMEXCHANGERATEABSTRACTInthebackgroundofRMB’SexchangeratereformonJuly21,2005,theacademicandfinancialsectorsproposedtheproblemofunderestimatingoftheRMB’Sexchangerate,andarousedhemeddebate.Intheseveralmajortheoriesofstudyin
2、gofRMB’Srealexchangerate,equilibriumexchangeratewasprominentinthefield.EquilibriumexchangerateissignificancetotheformationandregulationofRMB’Sexchangerateandthecentralbank'smacro—controlling.InthispapeqthestudyingofRMB’Sequilibriumexchangeratecombinesnonnativeanalysisandempiricalanalysis,qualitativ
3、eanalysisandquantitativeanalysismethod.Throughtheanalysisofthetheory’Sevolution,constructanindexsystemtocarryoutqualitativeanalysisaboutRMB。Sequilibriumexchangerate,whichgetsageneralconclusionthatRMB’Sequilibriumexchangerateisrevalueinmediumandlong—term.Afterselectingthemostappropriatetheoreticalmo
4、delandvariablesinaccordancewiththespecificcircumstancesofourcountry,weCangetaRMB’Sequilibriumexchangerateempiricalmodel.AndimprovedthetheoreticalmodelthroughADFunitroottestandcointegrationanalysis,eventuallyestablishtheRMB’Sequilibriumexchangerateempiricalmodelanderrorcorrectionmodeltostudyoflong-t
5、ermequilibriumconditionofRMB’Sexchangerate.Bycomparisonofthemodel’SequilibriumexchangeratetoChina’Srealeffectiveexchangerate,wecansumuptheimbalancerangeofRMB’SexchangerateisnotIISOserious.Finally,throughthefullanalysisoftheconclusions,madesomerecommendationsonthereformofChina’Sexchangeratesysterm.T
6、hedifficultiesandinnovationinthispaperarethesame,whichcombinesthequalitativeandempiricalanalysisofRMB’Sequilibriumexchangerate,andmorecomprehensivethanjustfocusonempiricalanalysis.Atthesametime,whenchoosingfundamentaleconomicfactorswhichdecidetheequilibriumrealexchangerateinthemediumandlong—term,we
7、putthevariablesoftradeopendegreeintotheempiricalmodel,thengetaequilibriumexchangerateempiricalmodelwhichclosertotheactualsituationofChina.KEYWORDS:RMB;ExchangeRate;EquilibriumIII符号说明符号意义单位或量纲FEER基本要素均衡汇率理论模
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