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1、QuantitativeMethodsforTourismResearchIII: Examiningthecausalrelationshipsamongsocio-economicfactors-Usingthetouristsatisfactionindexasanexample旅游研究的定量方法III：检验社会经济因素间的因果关系——以旅游满意度指数为例HaiyanSONG宋海岩SchoolofHotel&TourismManagement酒店及旅游业管理学院TheHongKongPolytechnicUniversity香港理工大学1.
2、Introduction引言2010vs2009Totalvisitorarrivals到达旅客总数36030331+21.8%—Overnightarrivals过夜旅客数20085155+18.7%—Same-dayarrivals当日往返旅客数159451760.259Averagehoteloccupancyrate酒店平均入住率87%9%points增长0.09个百分点Averageachievedhotelroomrate酒店平均房价HK$1165+13.9%Averagelengthstayofovernightvisitors过夜
3、旅客平均滞留时间3.6nights(天)+0.4nights增加0.4天Overnightvisitorpercapitaspending过夜旅客平均支出HK$6728+16.6%TotalTourismExpenditureAssociatedtoInboudTourism入境旅游总旅游支出HK$210.0billion 2100亿港币+32.7%Increasedsatisfactionislikelyto满意度增加表现在Enhancethereputationofproductprovidersandofthewholedestinatio
4、n,增强了产品供给者或整个目的地的声誉Increaseloyalty,提高忠诚度reducepriceelasticities,降低价格弹性reducethecostoffuturetransactionsandimproveproductivity.降低未来的转型成本并改善生产效率(Andersonetal.,1994;Swanson&Kelley,2001).1.Introduction引言Objectives目标Todevelopatheoreticalmodeltoassesstouristsatisfaction;建立理论模型来评估旅游
5、满意度Toidentifyvisitors’perceptionofserviceperformanceofthekeyserviceprovidersthroughalargescalevisitorsurvey;通过对游客的大规模调查，识别游客对主要服务提供者服务行为的感受Examinehowtheindustryperformsinprovidingqualityserviceandwhetheritmatcheswiththetourists‘expectations.考察行业提供的服务质量表现如何以及是否与游客的预期匹配‘‘measur
6、ingandmanagingcustomersatisfactioniscrucialforthesurvival,developmentandsuccessofserviceindustriesliketourism’’(Sirakaya,Petrick,&Choi,2004:518).“对于像旅游业这种服务行业的生存、发展和成功来说，测度和管理消费者的满意度至关重要（Sirakaya,Petrick,&Choi,2004:518）”1.Introduction引言Scholarshavebeeninterestedinmeasuringbot
7、hoveralltouristsatisfactionwithaparticulardestination(Yu&Goulden,2006)andtouristsatisfactionatthesectorlevel学者们既研究游客对某一目的地总体的满意度（Yu&Goulden,2006）也从行业的角度关注游客满意度Accommodation住宿(Saleh&Ryan,1992)Restaurants餐饮(Chadee&Mattsson,1996)Attractions景点(Dorfman,1979),Travelagencies旅行社(LeBl
8、anc,1992)Packagedtours旅行团游客(Pizam&Milman,1993)Retailshops零售店(Reising
