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1、TheImportanceofLocalFactorsIt’snotallaboutEuropeWhileitisdifficulttodiscusstheregion’seconomicoutlookwithouttakingintoaccountEurope’ssovereignandbankingstressandpotentialmassivefiscalconsolidationinlate2012,itisalsocrucialtotakeintoaccountlocalfactorsinAsia.Asianpolicymakers,bothcentralbanksandgov
2、ernments,areguidedprimarilybydomesticdevelopments.Understandingdomesticdynamicsisalsocriticaltoestablishingrelativevaluetradeideaswithintheregion.Therearethreekeyareastohighlight.First,Asia’sexportslowdowninH1-2012isexpectedtoputpressureonconsumptiongrowthinH2,especiallyinexport-orientedeconomies.
3、Thiscouldholdbackoverallgrowthmomentum(Figure1).Second,China’slateststimulusprogrammeisexpectedtobepositiveforNorthEastAsiaandASEAN,buttheimpactislikelytobefeltonlyinlate2012.11Third,despitetheshorttermslowdowninconsumption,mediumterminflationconcerns–especiallyarisingfromstronglendinggrowthinsome
4、economies–couldpersuadeAsiancentralbankstokeepmonetarypolicyonholdinsteadoflooseninginanticipationoffalloutfromtheWest.ConsumptiongrowthmoderatesConsumptiongrowthhasbeenanimportantgrowthdriverforAsiasincetheglobalfinancialcrisis,althoughitisnotsufficienttofullyoffsetthenegativeeffectsofaweakUSandE
5、uropeonexport-dependenteconomies.Asia’sstronglabourmarkets,intermsofbothemploymentandincomegrowth,havebeencrucialtomaintainingconsumptiongrowthintheregion.Thenthereisthepositivewealtheffectfromlocalresidentialreal-estateandequitymarkets.Somemarkets,suchasHongKongandSingapore,haveseenmaterialproper
6、typriceincreases,creatingapositivewealtheffectforhomeowners.Equitieshadapositivewealtheffectonconsumerspendingacross11AsiainQ1-2012,particularlybenefitinghigh-incomeeconomiessuchasHongKong,Singapore,TaiwanandSouthKorea,wherehouseholdownershipofequitiesismorewidespread.Lookingahead,weexpectconsumpt
7、iongrowthtostaypositivebuttodeceleratesomewhat.Jobgrowthisholdingup,butweakerexternaldemandislikelytotemperincomegrowthintheregion.TheQ2equity-marketcorrectioncouldalsodampenconsumerspendinginhighincomeeconomies.
