汇丰银行-印度制药业-india pharmaceuticals 1qfy18 preview,no tail to this headwind-20170712-hsbc

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1、12July2017IndiaPharmaceuticalsEQUITIESPHARMACEUTICALS1QFY18Preview:NotailtothisheadwindIndiaExpect1QFY18weakperformancewithflatyoysalesandGirishBakhru*,CFAc28%declineincoreearningsincoverageuniverseAnalyst,SouthEastAsiaHealthcareHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)Pr

2、ivateLimitedWeexpectcoreEBITDAdeclineofc18%yoyforourcoveragegirishbakhru@hsbc.co.in+912222681638inpharma.Higherformid-capswithhigherIndiaexposureDamayantiKerai*Analyst,Healthcare&HospitalsIndiaslowdownaheadofGSTtoimpactentiresector.NoHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)

3、PrivateLimitedstrongplayaheadof1QFY18earningsdamayantikerai@hsbc.co.in+912233960692Sectorearnings:WeexpectIndiaPharmatoreportweak1Qledbya)slowdowninIndiaasaresultofchannelde-stockingaheadofGST(Goods&ServicesTax)rollout–*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,and

4、isnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsinventoryat17.4daysinweekending28Junb)USDdepreciationagainstINRc)lackofbigticketlaunchesandd)continuingbaseerosionintheUS.WeexpectoverallsalestoremainflatyoyandbuildcoreEBITDAdeclineofc18%yoy(~480bpsdecline).WeexpectQoQsale

5、sgrowthofc2.6%andmargindeclineofc80bps.Baseeffectimpact:WeexpectSunPharmaandLupintoreportc45%declineinreportedPATbasisonhighbase.Onthecontrary,DrReddy’swillbenefitfromalowbasethoughweexpectqoqperformancetoremainweakowingtoflattishUSexpectationdespitenewlaunches.Weexpecthigh

6、shareIndiaimpacttobevisibleintheearningsofAlkem,Torrent,AlembicandCipla.QoQweexpectastrongperformanceforGlenmarkonthebackofhighergZetiasales.WealsoexpectAurobindotorecordabetterqoqdrivenbynewlaunchesintheUSandnoimpactfromIndiaslowdown.Healthcareservices:Weexpectmarginalreco

7、veryinhealthcareservicespost✔VoteinAsiamoneyBrokersPoll2017demonetisationledvolumeslippagesinQ4FY17.WeexpectbenefitofFHTLtransactionVotingstarts6thJulytoreflectinFortis,whileApolloearningswillremainunderpressureowingtostart-upIfyouvalueourserviceandinsight,voteforHSBClosses

8、intheNaviMumbaifacility.ClickheretovoteFY18outlook:AsperthelatestAIOCDdata,Indiagr