汇丰银行-新加坡银行业-singapore banks：possible reality check in 2q17-20170719-hsbc

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1、19July2017SingaporebanksEQUITIESFIGPossiblerealitycheckin2Q17SingaporeTimeforbankstodeliveronrevenueexpectationsKarWengLOO*BanksAnalyst,SEATheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationNIMmaynotbeasstrongasinitiallyhopedforLimited,SingaporeBranchkarwengloo@hsbc.com.sgOCBC:TPS

2、GD12.10isourkeypickfortacticalreasons+6566580621XiushiCAI*Timetodeliver.Bankstocksareup17%-24%YTDcomparedto14%fortheFSSTI.BanksAnalystTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationThestrongperformanceisdrivenbymarketexpectationsofstabilizingassetqualityandLimited,SingaporeBranchbett

3、ertoplinegrowth.Banksplayedahugeroleinshapingtheseexpectationsduetoxiushicai@hsbc.com.sg+6566580617previousguidanceonassetqualityandNIM.Thatsaid,stockpriceshavebeenconsolidatingsinceend-April2017.Forstockpricestomoveuphigher,bankswillnow*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurit

4、ies(USA)Inc,andishavetodeliveronexpectationsalreadybuiltintothemarket.notregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsAssetqualityandcreditgrowthshouldmeetexpectations.Recallthatallthebanksareguidingformid-singledigitcreditgrowthin2017.Wethinktheycaneasilymeetthisguidance.DBU

5、andACUloansinthesystemarenowcollectivelychuggingalongat5%✔VoteinAsiamoneyBrokersPoll2017y-o-yasatMay2017.TheSingaporeanbanksshouldbegrowingin-linewiththis.WeVotingstarts6thJulyalsoexpectassetqualitytoremainstablewithlittlechangeinreportedGrossImpairedIfyouvalueourserviceandins

6、ight,voteforHSBCClickheretovoteLoan(GIL)ratios.RecallthattheSingaporeanbankswereoozingconfidenceduringtheir1Q17resultsstatingthattheirassetqualityproblemsarenowathingofthepast.ButNIMmaynotbeasstrongasexpected.3-monthSIBORhasrisenbyonly17bpMiFIDII–ResearchYTDto1.14%whilethe3-mo

7、nthSORisdown26bpYTDto0.76%.Inotherwords,SGDIsyouraccessagreed?interestrateshasbeenratherflatYTD.WhileweareunlikelytoseepressureonNIM,CONTACTustodaystableinterestratesdonotbodewellforNIMstrength.Recallthatduringthe1Q17resultsseason,allthebankswereguidingforNIMtobeeitherhigheror

8、onparwith2017levels.GlobalResearchOCBCourpreferredstock.2Q17r