汇丰银行-新加坡宏观经济-still two-speed singapore 2q gdp disappoints-20170714-hsbc

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1、Economics-DataReactions14July2017Stilltwo-speedJosephIncalcaterraSingapore2QGDPdisappointsEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiSingapore's2Q17GDPexpanded0.4%q-o-qsaar,disappointingconsensusBankingCorporationLimitedexpectationsof1.1%,while1Qgrowthwasreviseddownto-1.9%from-1.3%+85228224687joseph.f.in

2、calcaterra@hsbc.com.hkpreviously.Themissin2Qwasduetoweakservicesoutput,likelyreflectingtepidprivateconsumptionandadecelerationinwagegrowth.ThemanufacturingViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:industry,ontheotherhand,remainsresilient.TheMinistryofTradeandIndustryhttp://www.research.hsbc.comappearstoassume

3、astrongreboundinJuneIP–aplausibleassumptiongiventheoptimisticoutlookforthesemiconductorindustry–butanydisappointmentintheIssuerofreportdatacouldleadtoadownwardrevisioninthefinal2QGDPprint.Allinall,GDPinTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedSingaporeshouldremainstrongthisyear(weforeca

4、st2.5%),butthedatapointstoDisclosures&Disclaimerthecontinuationofa“two-speedeconomy”wheregrowthinexternalindustriesisThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystshowingscantevidenceoffilteringthroughtothedomesticeconomy.WeforecastcertificationsintheDisclosureMAStomaintainneutralmonetar

5、ypolicythrough2017.appendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitFacts-SingaporeGDPexpanded0.4%q-o-qsaarin2Q(Bbg:1.1%,HSBC:1.3%),anaccelerationfromthe1.9%contractionin1Q.Iny-o-yterms,2QGDPexpanded2.5%y-o-y.-1QGDPwasrevisedto-1.9%q-o-qsaar,from-1.3%inthefinal1QGDPrelease(from2.7%to2.5%ony-o-

6、yterms).TherevisionloweredservicesGDPgrowth(-2.1to-2.7%)andconstruction(4.3to-14.4%).ManufacturingGDPwasrevisedhigher(-1.5to0.4%).-Accordingtoourestimates,MTIappearstoassume7.0%m-o-msagrowthinJuneIP.ThedatawillbereleasedonJuly26.-ThefinalGDPdatawillbereleasedtheweekofAug18.ImplicationsAftermo

7、nthsofendlessupsidedatasurprises,itisperhapsoddtoseeadownsidesurprise(includingadownwardrevisionto1Qdata).Weareprovidedwithsparinglyfewdetailsintheadvance2QGDPrelease,butfromwhatwecangather,Singaporecontinuestohavea"two-speedeconomy"andthefat