汇丰银行-马来西亚-宏观经济-马来西亚2018年预算：两全其美

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1、Flashnote27October2017MalaysiaBudget2018ECONOMICS&RATESMALAYSIADeliveringthebestofbothworldsPrimeMinisterNajibpresenteda2018budgetwithadeficitofJosephIncalcaterra,CFA2.8%,animprovementfromthe3.0%expectedin2017EconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedJoseph.f.incalcaterra@hsbc.com

2、.hkStrongrevenueassumptionsallowthegovernmenttodeliver+85228224687furtherfiscalconsolidationcoupledwithpro-consumerspendingNoelanArbisEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedGDPshouldslownextyearastheexportboostfades,butstrongnoelan.arbis@hsbc.com.hk+85228224325consumptionandinvest

3、mentpointtostill-robustgrowthof4.7%PinRuTanStrategistPrimeMinisterNajibtableda2018budgetthatdeliveredthebestofbothworlds:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedPin.ru.tan@hsbc.com.sgfiscalconsolidationalongsidepro-consumermeasuresthatshouldhelpsustain+6566588782privateconsumption,inlinewithw

4、hatwehaveseeninpastelectionyearbudgets(electionsmustbeheldbyAugust2018).Thisjuxtapositionwasinlinewithourexpectations(seeBestofbothworlds:Malaysia2018Budgetof20October2017)andwaspossiblethankstostronggrowthandrevenueassumptionsfornextyear–particularlyforcorporatetaxandnon-taxrevenuessuchasinvestment

5、returns.Thegovernmentpencilledinadecelerationindevelopmentexpendituregrowthfornextyear(1.1%),allowingformoresubstantialincreasesincurrentexpenditure(6.6%).Onthesurface,thisiscauseforconcern.Afterall,itpointstoadeclineinthetypeofproductiveinfrastructurespendingthatfuelsfuturegrowth.Butinreality,thego

6、vernmenthasadeptlyincreasedsourcesofoff-budgetfinancingthankstotherobustpipelineofChinese-fundedinfrastructureprojectsalongsidesomedomesticandotherforeignprivatefinancing.Asaresult,Malaysiaislikelytoseerelativelystronginvestmentoverthecomingtwoyears,whichshouldresultinamoderatedragonthecurrentaccoun

7、t(seeASEANPerspectives:Sizingupthe‘OBOR’impactof26May2017).Sustainedfiscalconsolidationin2018shouldbeawelcomeddevelopmentforforeigninvestors,inourview.Butweremainsomewaysawayfromthegovernment’sgoaltod