德银-新兴市场-新兴市场增长-20170920-deutsche bank-emea snap em growth

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDate20September2017ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistEMEASnap(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comEMgrowthCarlosGalindoResearchAnalyst(+44)207547-6269carlos.galindo@db.comWeexpectemergingmarketstoexperiencearobustpick-upinactivityuntilend-2018.Inthi

2、sreport,wedivedeeperintothespecificsthatareTwishaRoylikelytodrivethisgrowthstoryinthecomingquarterandbeyond.ResearchAssociatetwisha.roy@db.comTherevivalinEMgrowthhasbeenledbyimprovingexports,anupswinginthecreditcycle,accommodativeDMmonetarypolicyandeasyfiscalandmonetarypolicywithinEM.EMmacro

3、momentumremainsupbeatforthenextquarter,withEMEAandLatAmgrowthlikelytoimprove.AslightslowdowninmomentumisevidentinAsia,ledbyChinaandIndia.However,weseedownsideriskstogrowth,withtheimpetusfromfiscalandmonetarypolicylikelytofadewhileglobaltradegrowthmaysettleatlowerlevels.Againstthisbackdrop,the

4、nextpushinEMgrowthcouldcomefromstructuralreforms.Thelastsectionofthispieceprovidesaconvenientreferencesection,wherethereadercanfindaquickshortcuttoourEMcountrycoveragegrowthoutlooks.TheEMgrowthstoryTherecentrevivalinEMgrowthhasbeendrivenbyimprovementsinglobaltrade,followingtheresurgenceinUSan

5、dEuroareademand.GlobaldemandandglobaltradehavebeenimprovingsteadilyandthishasresultedinrisingexportvolumesinEM.AsiaandEMEAhavebenefittedthemost,whileLatAmhaslaggedbehind.Risingglobaltrade……translatesintohigherexportvolumesinEMSource:RWI/ISl,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankSource:HaverAnalytics,CEIC

6、,DeutscheBank________________________________________________________________________________________________________________DeutscheBankAG/LondonDistributedon:21/09/201706:00:00GMTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.0bed7b6cf11c20September2017EMEASnap:EM

7、growthRealcreditgrowthhasimprovedinEMEAandLatAm,aswellasAsia,sincethebeginningoftheyear.However,EMcorporates’greateraccesstointernationalbondmarketshastranslatedintoasubstantialbuild-upinleverage.Sincetheglobalfinancialcrisis(GFC),avera