汇丰银行-韩国-银行业-韩国银行业：10月份家庭债务低于预期

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1、24October2017KoreaBanksEQUITIESFIGOct17HHdebtmeasuresfallwithinexpectationsKoreaStep-by-stepmeasurestolimitexcessiveleverage,clampingSinyoungPark*downonmulti-homeownersandsecondarylendinginstitutionsAnalyst,KoreaFinancialsTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimite

2、d,SeoulSecuritiesBranchSlowermortgagegrowthlikelybutthisislargelyexpectedbysinyoungpark@kr.hsbc.com+82237068770themarketandbanksarewell-prepared,inourview*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisIncreasedclarityonhouseholddebtmeasureswillhelptonotregister

3、ed/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationseaseregulatoryconcernsonKoreanbanks,inourviewGov’tfinallyannouncescomprehensiveHHdebtmeasuresafter2monthdelayAfterdelayingtheannouncementsinceAugust2017,thegovernmentfinallyputout‘ComprehensiveHouseholdDebtMeasures’on24October.Theplanw

4、aslargelyin-linewithourexpectation,mostlyinvolvingtighterunderwritingguidelinestolimitexcessiveleverageforspeculativepropertyinvestments,especiallytargetingmulti-homeownersandsecondarylendinginstitutions.Whilemoredetailedguidelineswillbeannouncedbeforetheyear-end,thedirect

5、ionisin-linewithourexpectation(i.e.,delinquentlendingrate/DTI/DSRscheme,andwritingoffsmall/long-overdueloans).Withtheannouncement,regulatoryconcernslikelytoeaseinourviewWeexpectmortgageloangrowthtodeceleratefrom11%y-o-yin2014-16toasubdued4%in2018e-19e.However,itiswellunder

6、stoodthatKoreanbanksarenotaggressivelylookingtogrowtheirloanbookespeciallyinthehouseholdsegment.OthermeasuressuchascuttingthelendingrateondelinquentloansandraisingLDRweightsforHHloanswillhavelimitedimpact,sub1%ofannualearnings.Lastly,weflagthathouseholddebtisunlikelytopose

7、significantsystematicriskgiventhat:1)mortgagestructureimprovedwithmuchhigherfixed-rateandamortizingproportion;2)majorityofhouseholddebtisheldbyhigherincomehouseholds;3)financialdebttoassetratioremainsstable;and4)debttodisposableincomeappearsoverstatedgivenahighportionofsel

8、f-employment.Wethinktoday’sannouncementbringsincreasedclarityandwillhelptoMiFIDII–Researc