德意志银行-新兴市场研究-emerging markets monthly half full...-20170713-deutschebank

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateForeignExchange13July2017RatesCreditEmergingMarketsMonthlyHalfFull…DrausioGiacomelliSameerGoelHongtaoJiangJulianaLeeElinaRibakova(+1)212250-7355(+65)64236973(+1)212250-2524+85222038312+44(20)7547-1340SpecialReportsEMCar

2、ryTrade:EasierSaidThanDoneIndia'sLandmarkGSTReformVenezuela:PreparingfortheEndGamePhilippines:OneYearOn,theDuterteFeverLivesOnDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.NotetoU.S.investors:USregulatorshavenotapprovedmostforeignlistedstockindexfuturesandoptionsforUSDistributedon:13/07/201720

3、:12:31GMTinvestors.Eligibleinvestorsmaybeabletogetexposurethroughover-the-counterproducts.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.0bed7b6cf11c13July2017EMMonthly:HalfFull…KeyEconomicForecastsRealGDP(%)Consumerprices(%pavg)Currentaccount(%G

4、DP)Fiscalbalance(%GDP)20162017F2018F20162017F2018F20162017F2018F20162017F2018FGlobal3.13.63.74.35.34.4↓0.40.30.1-3.3-3.1↑-3.0US1.62.42.61.32.1↓2.0↓-2.6-2.9-3.2-3.1-2.9-3.0↓Japan1.01.2↓0.7↓-0.10.40.53.73.9↓4.0↓-3.5-3.4↑-3.0↑Euroland1.71.9↑1.60.21.61.53.53.12.9-1.5-1.4-1.3Ger

5、many1.91.6↑1.7↑0.41.61.68.38.07.80.80.50.2France1.11.41.60.31.31.3-0.9-0.6-0.5-3.4-3.1-2.8Italy0.91.01.0-0.11.41.32.62.72.3-2.4-2.3-2.3Spain3.22.72.1-0.32.01.81.91.91.8-4.5-3.3-2.8Netherlands2.22.11.50.11.11.48.510.210.20.40.60.0Belgium1.21.61.61.82.31.9-0.41.01.0-2.6-2.1-2

6、.1Austria1.61.81.61.01.91.61.72.83.1-1.6-0.9-0.8Finland1.51.21.50.41.01.4-1.1-1.0-0.7-1.9-2.1-1.6Greece0.00.92.00.01.11.0-0.61.01.00.7-1.30.6Portugal1.42.5↑1.4↑0.61.21.51.00.70.7-2.0-1.8↑-1.7↑Ireland5.24.03.2-0.20.21.34.710.08.0-0.6-0.7-0.5OtherIndustrialCountries1.82.11.91

7、.02.22.2-1.6-0.9-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.2UnitedKingdom1.81.61.20.62.72.8-4.4-4.0-4.0-2.9-2.9-2.5Sweden2.93.02.41.01.51.54.74.95.12.00.00.3Denmark1.71.71.80.31.11.46.56.56.5-2.1-2.5-1.9Norway0.71.61.83.62.72.54.46.27.03.73.94.2Switzerland1.31.51.7-0.30.50.79.59.39.0-0.1-0.1-0.1Canada

8、1.52.52.21.42.02.0-3.6-2.7-2.10.0-1.1-1.4Australia2.52.42.91.32.32.1-2.6-0.9-1.2-2