资源描述：
《德意志银行-南非行业研究-sa golds：sa gold 3q17，riches to rags-20170705-deutschebank》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、SAGoldsDeutscheBankMarketsResearchSub-SaharanAfricaIndustryDateSouthAfrica5July2017SAGoldsGoldIndustryUpdateSAGold3Q17:richestoragsPatrickMann,CFANeutralgoldpriceoutlookfromhereleavesusnegativeontheequitiesWeexpecttheUSD-goldpricetoremainaroundUS$1,250/ozover2017E-2
2、019E.ResearchAnalystInthisnote,weupgradeour2017USD-goldpriceby+4%toUSD$1,250/+27-11-775-7282oz(largelymarkingsecondquartertospot)andtweak2018E-2022Elowerbybetween-0.4%and-1.7%.Wehavemadenochangestorecommendations,weKeyChangeshavemademinorpricetargetadjustmentsandweh
3、aveupdatedourfinancialCompanyTargetPriceRatingANGJ.J145.00toforecastsforthenewcommodityprices.EarningsareupgradedforFY1owingto150.00our4%higherforecastUSD-goldprices,butremainbelowFY0(fiscalyear2016)HARJ.J20.00to19.00forallproducersexceptforHarmony(whichbenefitsfrompro
4、fitablehedgesyear-Source:DeutscheBankon-year).Withaneutraloutlookforthegoldprice,wearebearishonthesectorCompaniesfeaturedoverthemedium-termasweexpectmargincompressiontocontinue.WeretainGoldFields(GFIJ.J),ZAR45.81HoldSellrecommendationsonSibanyeandHarmonyandHoldrecomm
5、endationson2016A2017E2018EAngloGoldandGoldFields.DBEPS(USD)0.230.120.15P/E(x)18.428.523.0Gold:remainingcautiousoverthemedium-termEV/EBITA(x)8.610.69.5WeremaincautiousongoldoverthemediumtermgiventheheadwindsofAngloGoldAshanti(ANGJ.J),ZAR125.03Holdstrongglobalgrowthfo
6、recastsandrisingU.S.interestrates.Ourregressionmodel2016A2017E2018EestimatesamarketpremiumofUSD61/ozatagoldpriceofUSD1,254/oz,andDBEPS(USD)0.340.080.12ourforecastsassumethatthismarketpremiumremainsstabletohigherintoyearP/E(x)41.4122.378.5end.Onourhousemacroforecasts
7、,however,risksforgoldremainconsistentlyEV/EBITA(x)12.629.749.4tothedownsideaswearebullishtheUSdollarandtheS&P500whilewealsoHarmony(HARJ.J),ZAR21.70SellexpectrealTreasuryyieldstomovehigher.Nevertheless,wehaveupgradedour2016A2017E2018EUSDgoldpriceforecastsby4%toUS$1,2
8、50/ozin2017(US$1,260/ozin2H),DBEPS(ZAR)2.193.142.00givenYTDpricinghasexceedourexpectationsduetoheightenedgeopoliticalP/E(x)12.96.910.8tens
