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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAustralasiaIndustryDateAustraliaGoldandother11July2017M&M-GoldmetalsResultsMathewHockingJuneQproductionpreview-GoldResearchAnalyst(+61)28258-2611cooling,OtherMetalswarmingupmathew.hocking@db.comGoldsectorappealing,butbasemetalstodeliverstrongerJuneQresults
2、TimHoffTheGold&OtherMetalssectorcontinuestodelivermixedresults.TheASXResearchAnalystgoldsdelivered+6%returnsinthefirsthalf,despiteNCMunderperforming,(+61)28258-1424butgaveupthosegainsinthefirsttwoweeksofJuly.TheASXbasemetalstim.hoff@db.comspacehasweakenedthroughouttheyearaspositivem
3、acrosentimenthassoftened&supplyhasresponded.Giventherecentde-rate,ASXgoldToppicksvaluationsarenotstretched,butweexpecttheJuneQtobringcostinflationacrossthesector,partlydrivenbymoderatinggrades.Conversely,thebaseEvolutionMining(EVN.AX),AUD2.26Buymetalsproducersaresettoliftoutput&shou
4、lddelivergoodJuneQresults.StBarbara(SBM.AX),AUD2.77BuyOurtoppicksareSFR,IGO&SYRinothermetalsandEVNandSBMingolds.SandfireResourcesNL(SFR.AX),AUD5.90BuyIndependenceGroup(IGO.AX),AUD3.18BuyWhichcompaniesarelikelytooutperform?SFR,OZL,IGO,AQG,RRLSource:DeutscheBankSFRshoulddeliverastrong
5、JuneQandreachthetopendofguidanceforbothFY17goldandcopperproduction.WeexpecttheCompanytoendFY17withCompaniesFeaturedA$140mnetcash,makingtheCompany15%cash-backed.OZLshouldreportNewcrestMiningLtd(NCM.AX),AUD19.85SellastrongerJuneQ(+13%QoQ)followingarainaffectedMarchQ;wedon’tAlacerGold(
6、AQG.AX),AUD2.08BuyexpectanymajorupdatesonCarrapateenauntillaterthisquarter(September).EvolutionMining(EVN.AX),AUD2.26BuyIGOcanimproveproductionratesatTropicana(pushingtowardsthetopendIndependenceGroup(IGO.AX),AUD3.18BuyofFY17guidance)&Jaguar;adowngradetoNovaFY18productionguidanceNor
7、thernStarResourcesSellislikely,butwellflagged.AQGcanalsoimproveQoQperformanceafterpit(NST.AX),AUD4.61accessissuesimpactedtheMarchQ,andRRLshouldcontinuetoliftoutputasOceanaGoldCorporationHoldhighergradeorefromErlistounandGlousterdisplaceslowergradeore.SYR(OGC.AX),AUD3.73recentlyupdat
8、edthemarketonBalama
