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《德银-新兴市场-主权债务-新兴市场债务：9月技术监测-20171002-deutsche bank-em debt：technicals monitor：september 2017》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCreditDateSovereigns2October2017JayantGuptaHongtaoJiangStrategistStrategistEMDebt:TechnicalsMonitor(+1)904271-3885(+1)212250-2524jayanth.gupta@db.comhongtao.jiang@db.comSeptember2017Summary:TechnicalconditionsfortheEMcreditmarketsremainsupporti
2、veonthebackInflowsremainstronginEMofstrongfundsflowsandlikelylighterpositioning(asindicatedbymutualfundEMdebtfundflows(%AUM)beta),cushioningtheimpactofasurgeinsupplies.Solidspreadperformance2.0ofEMsovereigncreditthismonthdespitehigherUSTyieldsandmanyissuancesatteststothestrongappetitef
3、orEMbondsandsupportivetechnical1.0conditions.EMsovereignssoldUSD26bninSeptember,bringingYTDissuance0.0toUSD138bn,closetoof2016totalvolume(USD144bn).WeexpectaroundUSD36bnmoreissuancesintherema0inderoftheyear,withArgentina,Egypt,-1.0Indonesia,China,Nigeria,UAEetc.amongsomeofthemajorsover
4、eignsEMweeklyflowsexpectedtocometothemarket.-2.0Hardccy4wkMALocalccy4wkMAInflowsremainstrongaheadofFed’sbalancesheetunwinding-3.0EMinflowscontinueddespiterecentvolatilityinthemarketduetoFed’splanSep-15Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17ofbalancesheettaperingandon-goinggeopoliticaltensionbetweenUS
5、andSource:EPFR,DeutscheBankNorthKorea.Overall,EMhardcurrencyfundstookinexcessofUSD3.8bn(2%AUM)inSeptember,whilelocalandblendedcurrencyfundsabsorbedUSD0.6bn(0.5%AUM)andUSD0.7bn(1.5%AUM),respectively.Year-to-date,IssuancesspikedinSeptemberhardcurrencyfundsaggregatedaboutUSD34bn(20%AUM),i
6、ncomparisontoUSD17bn(16%AUM)forlocalcurrencyfunds,andUSD6bn(11%AUM)for(USD26bn),historicallySep-Novblendedcurrencyfunds.periodseesincreaseinsupplyWithinhardcurrencyfunds,thebulkofflowsindollaramountwenttoGEMTotal($bn)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecfocusedfunds,addingUSD3.5bn(2%AUM
7、),whiletheAsiafocusedfunds20106223%5%14%18%0%0%8%5%14%9%4%0%attractedUSD0.4bn(2%AUM).Similarly,comparingflowsinsovereignvs.20115612%5%18%12%5%7%16%2%4%6%13%0%corporatefunds,thepaceofflowsincorporatefocusedfundsremainedstrongeraddinganotherUSD1.3bn(3%AUM),ascomparedtoUSD1bn(1.4%201279
