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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinaInfrastructure16August2017IndustrialsManufacturingConstructionRecommendationChangeSkyHong,CFANickZheng,CFAExposuremattersResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036131(+852)22036198sky.hong@db.comnick.zheng@db.comPreferCCC-H&C
2、SCIoverCRG-HandCRCC-H;InitiateonCCC-AwithaSellKeyChangesThesharepricesofChineseconstructorshistoricallytendedtomovetogetherCompanyTargetPriceRatingasinvestorslargelyviewedthemashomogenous.However,withexposure(i.e.3311.HK16.06to-constructionvs.non-construction;domesticvs.overse
3、as;cashvs.PPP)and15.40(HKD)otherdifferentiation,weexpectthesharepricestodivergeahead.Weprefer1800.HK13.71to-CCCasvaluationcross-checkssuggestthatitsconstructionbusinesstradesat13.00(HKD)4x(vs.7xforCRG-HandCRCC-H)despiteahealthierend-marketexposure.601800.SS11.60(CNY)SellWealso
4、likeCSCIforitsstrongergrowthandbalancesheet.Onvaluation,weSource:DeutscheBankreiterateSellsonCRG-AandCRCC-A,andinitiatecoverageonCCC-AwithaSell.ToppicksCSCI(3311.HK),HKD12.44BuyWepreferlessrailway&PPPexposureandmoreoverseas;CCCstandsoutChinaCommsConstructBuyAswehadpointedoutin
5、ourrecentChinaRailSectorreport(Achangeoftrack(1800.HK),HKD10.32–switchfromconstructorstoequipmentsuppliers),domesticnewrailwaySource:DeutscheBankprojectsarepoisedtodeclineinthelightoffallinglengthcompletioninthe14thFive-Year-Period.Withintheconstructionsegment,CCC’s4%exposuret
6、oCompaniesFeatureddomesticrailway(intermsofneworders)ismuchlowerthanCRG’s(34%)andCRCC’s(25%).Giventhegovernment’sincreasedscrutinyofPPPprojects,weCSCI(3311.HK),HKD12.44BuybelievethestrongPPPmomentumwillslowahead,andhencepreferless2016A2017E2018Eexposure(25%forCCCvs.30%forCRGan
7、d27%forCRCC).Incontrast,weareP/E(x)11.510.28.2constructiveabouthigher-marginoverseasmarketsinlightofPresidentXi’sEV/EBITDA(x)9.58.77.1Price/book(x)2.01.91.6OneBeltOneRoadinitiatives.CCCagainstandsout,withmorethan1/3comingfromoverseas(vs.10%forCRGandCRCC).ChinaCommsConstructBuy
8、(1800.HK),HKD10.32WepreferresilientgrowthagainstPPPslowdown;C
