德意志银行-em macro and strategy focus-20170616-deutschebank

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchGlobalEconomicsDateEmergingMarketsForeignExchange16June2017UnitedStatesRatesCreditEditorsDrausioGiacomelliEMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelliStrategist(+1)212250-7355(+1)212250JedEvansdrausio.giacomelli@db.com(+1)212250-8605EconomicsFocus:WeexpectthePhilippinesand

2、TaiwantokeeptheirpolicyratesSebastianBrownunchanged.TherewillbemixedinflationdataoutofEMAsia,whileVietnam'sStrategist–LatAmgrowthwilllikelyimpress.InEMEA,MayCPIandQ2currentaccountisduein(+1)212250-8191SouthAfricanextweek.Inflationislikelytohaveedgedupalittleby0.3%MoM.NBHisexpectedtocutthelimiton

3、3mdepositsfurtherwhilemakingonlyslightGautamKalaniamendmentstoitsquarterlyforecasts.InLatAm,politicswillremainatcenterstageStrategist–EMEAinBrazil.InColombia,thedeteriorationofleadingactivityindicatorsinApril+44(20)754-57066increasesrisksofapersistentslowdownin2Q17andaddsdownwardbiastooureconomi

4、cgrowthforecastof2%for2017.JulianaLeeStrategyFocus:TherecentriseinrealratesintheUSposeslimitedrisktoEM,inSeniorEconomistourview.OurmainconcernistheFedfallingbehindthecurve,whichseems+852(2203)8312unlikelywithcontainedinflationandapreemptivestanceWecontinuetorecommendstayinglongEMwithreducedposit

5、ions.GuilhermeMaroneFX:Arange-boundUSDamidsubduedyetpositivegrowthandyieldpick-upStrategist-LatAmcontinuetosupportEMinflows.InLatAm,wefavorshortsinEUR/PEN,selling(+1)212250-8640downsideinUSD/COP,andrange-boundBRL(vs.EUR).BuyARS/MXN.WeremainlongTRYandILSvs.USD,buttightenstops(to3.57forboth)given

6、theElinaRibakovastrongrecentrallyandpossibleUSDretracement.WealsorecommendusingChiefEconomisttherecentspiketosellthelesscommodity-sensitiveEUR/PLN(initialtarget(+44)207547-13404.15),whilewemaintainourUSD/RUBlongviaoptions.Rates:ThesoftCPInumberintheUShelpedreceiversacrossEM.DespitelessChristian

7、Wietoskaappealingvaluations,wefavorfront-endreceiversinBrazil,extendingexposureStrategist–EMEAto5Y-10YsectorinColombia,Peru,Chile(vsNDFs)andMexico(vsUS10s).(+44)20754-52424Weextendourreceiversto5YXCCYinTurkey,holdhybridflatt