德银-港股-房地产市场-核查所有正确的盒子进行价格校正

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongHongKongProperty7December2017PropertyPropertyIndustryUpdateJasonChing,CFAJeffreyGao,CFACheckingalltherightboxesforpriceResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036205(+852)22036256correctionjason.ching@db.comjeffrey.gao@db.comFirstrate

2、hikein11yearscouldchangeperceptiononpropertyasinvestmentStephenCheung,CFAWebelieve2018couldwellbeaturningpointfortheHongKongpropertyResearchAnalystmarketonthebackofanticipatedchangesinthefundingenvironment(i.e.the(+852)22036182firstratehikein11years)andsupply/demanddynamics,whichweb

3、elievemaystephen-a.cheung@db.comchangetheperceptionofpropertyasagoodinvestmenttool.Specifically,weexpectresidentialpricestodecline14%in2018onratehikes,surgingnewFooLeungsupply,andintensifyingcompetitionfrommainlanddevelopersinprojectResearchAssociatelaunches.Intheofficemarket,weexpe

4、ctCentralGrade-Arentstodecline5-(+852)2203623910%onsofteningdemand.Intheretailmarket,weexpectshoppingmallrentsfoo.leung@db.comtofall5-10%onunsustainableoccupancycost.Residentialmarketfacingchallengeswithrisingmortgagerates/completionsWhileprimarymarketvolumeissettoseeanew10-yearhigh

5、in2017,Toppickssecondarymarketvolumeisstillsluggish.Primaryvolumenowmakesup33%CKAsset(1113.HK),HKD65.15Buyofthetotal(versusthelong-termaverageof20%),highlightingthattheSource:DeutscheBankstrengthintheprimarymarkethasbeendrivenbydevelopers’offersofvendorfinancing.Meanwhile,webelievet

6、heshortageintheresidentialmarketwillreversein2018ascompletionssurgeto20,559units(88%abovethe10-yearaverage)buttake-upremainsat10,828.Weseetheattractivenessofresidentialpropertiesasagoodinvestmenttoolfadinginsuchanenvironment.Ouranalysisshowsthatrentalyieldandthecapitalappreciationof

7、primaryprojectssoldinthepastsixyearshavemarkedlyunderperformedthemarket.Office:demandsofteningwithMNCsleavingandcontinuingdecentralizationWhileCentralGrade-Aofficerentshavestayedfirm,vacancyrateshaverisentothehighestlevelin2.5yearsonanegativenettake-up.Weseeweaknessindemandcorrespon

8、dingwiththedepartur