德银-港股-酒店、休闲与博彩业-三季度要点：利润预示着2018年会更好

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1、MacauDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKong10November2017MacauConsumerHotels/Leisure/GamingResults3Qwrap:Marginsurprisebodeswellfor2018KarenTangAgoodquarter:VIPpumpingwhilemarginsrisingResearchAnalystOnthebackof7%qoqGGRgrowth,Macau's6operatorsgrewindustryEBITDAby11%qoqin3Q17.

2、Abigsurprisefromthe3Q17earningsseasonismargin+852-22036141expansion.Originally,themarketwasworriedthatstrongVIPgrowthwoulddragToppicksmarginsasVIPmarginismuchlowerthanmassmargin.Asitturnedout,industryWynnMacau(1128.HK),HKD21.40BuyEBITDAmarginactuallyrose90bpsqoqto22.8%in3Q17,asthenegative

3、MGMChina(2282.HK),HKD19.04BuyimpactfrommixshiftwasmorethanoffsetbyadisciplinedcostenvironmentSource:DeutscheBankandoperatingleverage.ThisshouldgiveconfidencetotheStreettoliftmarginCompaniesfeaturedfor2018.ReiterateWynnMacau(Buy)asourToppickwhereour2018EBITDAGalaxy(0027.HK),HKD55.80Holdforec

4、astis8%aboveconsensus.2016A2017E2018EEV/EBITDA(x)10.115.513.8Keyinsightsfrom3Q17earningsseasonWynnMacau(1128.HK),HKD21.40Buy■VIPsharplyoutgrewmass.Afteradjustedforsmokingpremiummass2016A2017E2018Ere-classification,adjVIPGGRgrew10%qoq(36%yoy),muchstrongerEV/EBITDA(x)17.316.813.7thanadjmassG

5、GRgrowthof4%qoq(9%yoy).Infact,givensummerSJM(0880.HK),HKD6.65Holdisastrongseasonformass,themutedmassGGRgrowthof4%qoqis2016A2017E2018Eslightlydisappointing.EV/EBITDA(x)5.313.914.9■Promotionalenvironmentremaineddisciplined.Compsasa%ofmassSandsChina(1928.HK),HKD38.00HoldtableGGRwereflatqoqat1

6、2.0%.Cotaisawa30bpsincreaseto12.7%2016A2017E2018Ein3Q(12.4%in2Q)butthiswasoffsetbyPeninsuladown100bpsqoqtoEV/EBITDA(x)15.316.815.89.8%(Figure12).WynnPalace'scompsratiodeclinedfor5consecutiveMGMChina(2282.HK),HKD19.04Buyquarterlyfrom31%atopeningin3Q16to20%by3Q17,suggesting2016A2017E2018Ethe

7、propertyarereapingbenefitsfromcustomerre-investmentsinpriorEV/EBITDA(x)13.122.115.1Source:DeutscheBankquarters.■Marginssurprisedontheupside.IndustryEBITDAmarginimprovedfrom21.9%in2Qto22.8%in3Q,beatingourflattishforecast.BothSandsParisianandWynnPalacescoredwell.Parisia