巴黎银行-外汇驱动力

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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:ThestrongesttrendsintheG10atthestartof2018arebullishCADNatalieRickardandbearishNZD,accordingtoourmetric.FXStrategistJPYmomentumhasbecomeincreasinglybearish.AlthoughBNPParibasLondonBranchUSDJPYhasdeclined,thetrendsof(i)JPYcrossesa

2、nd(ii)ratesmarketssuggesttheJPYmayhavescopetoweakenfurther.USDmomentumremainsbullishoverall;FXtrendsarebearishfortheUSD,butratesandequitymarketsaresendingbullishsignals.NOKmomentumhasswitchedtobeingbullishatascoreof+13(-/+100scale),whileSEKmomentumremainsbear

3、ish.Chart1:CADmomentumstronglybullish…Chart2:…whileNZDmomentumremainsbearishChart3:FXbearishforUSD,butrates&equitiesbullishChart4:NOKmomentumnowbullishAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasInChart3,eachcomponentscorevariesbetwe

4、en+/-33.3.InCharts1,2and4,theoverallscoreisasumofthethreecomponentsandvariesbetween+/-100.BNPParibasFXmomentum(scaleof-100to100)100Bullishmomentum02-Jan-201812-Dec-201751503617131070-14-22-23-50-100Bearishmomentum-81CADUSDGBPNOKEURCHFSEKJPYAUDNZDSource:BNPParib

5、asPleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthereport&MARDisclosureswww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasFXmomentumportfolioreturns*Source:Macrobond,BNPParibas*Portfolioofequally-weightedbasketsofeachG10currencywithpositionsizesdeterminedbythemomentumscor

6、esand10%voltarget.Indexedto1Jan2010.Three-yearplotofG10currencymomentumscoresUSDoverallmomentumGBPoverallmomentumEURoverallmomentumJPYoverallmomentumAUDoverallmomentumCADoverallmomentumAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibas02Ja

7、nuary20182FXQuantInsightwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comNZDoverallmomentumCHFoverallmomentumNOKoverallmomentumSEKoverallmomentumAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasBriefintroductiontoBNPParibasFXMomentumBNPParibasFXMomentumme

8、asuresthestrengthofacurrency’sbullishorbearishtrend,providingascoreforeachcurrencybetween+100and-100.Thelargerthescoreforacurrency,thestrongeritstrendappearstobe.Whenanexcha