巴克莱-美股-石油与天然气行业-股东呼吁资本规则：正是我们所期待的

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1、EquityResearch8January2018NorthAmericaOil&Gas:E&P(LargeCap)INDUSTRYUPDATEShareholdersWantCapitalDisciplineNorthAmericaOil&Gas:E&P(LargeCap)–HereIsWhatWeExpectNEUTRALUnchangedWebelieveshareholderunhappinesswithpoorreturnsandE&Psharepriceperformance(sincemid-2014,theS&PE&Pindexisdown40%andt

2、heS&P500isupNorthAmericaOil&Gas:E&P(LargeCap)40%)willleadtochangesinbehaviorin2018.ItishardtoholdcurrentmanagementThomasR.Driscollteamsentirelyaccountableforreturnsonhistoricalcapital(thatmayhavebeen+12125263557investedat$100oil),butcompanieswillneedtofocusonallocatingcapitaltothomas.dris

3、coll@barclays.commaximizereturnsonnewspending.WeexpectincentiveplanswillgravitatetowardsBCI,USdebt-adjustedpersharemetricssuchasthosewepioneeredin1997andspeculatethatMichaelLoneganthebottom-lineimpactcouldbea1-3%improvementinfullcyclereturns.+12125264824michael.lonegan@barclays.comE&Pinve

4、storsarelobbyingforasharperfocusonreturns,butwhatwillchange?WeBCI,USexpectthereturnsfocustoleadto:1)significantchangesinmanagementcompensationincentives;2)areductioninhigh-pricedacreageacquisitionsandG&AIanGormanspending;and3)amodestreductionindrillingcapitalandashift,overtime,in+12125267

5、068expectedreturnsfromgrowthonlytogrowth+dividends(orbuybacks).Our2018-ian.gorman@barclays.comBCI,US2019estimatesshowreturnsonnewcapitalrisingfromessentiallyzerooverthepast3yearstoapproximately15%in2018-2019.Boardsneedtobalancetransparencywithrelevance.Incentiveswilllikelyshifttowardper-s

6、haremetricswithdecreasedemphasisonaccounting(eg:ROCE)andoperational(eg:F&D/operatingcost)measures.Therehavebeennumerousmanagementmentionsof“debt-adjusted”metricssinceOctober.Whilewepioneeredtheuseofdebt-adjustedcashflowerpersharein1997afterobservingstrongcorrelationswithsharepriceperforma

7、nce,wehavesincemigratedtoward“balance-adjusted”productiongrowth(BAPG)asitissimplerandmoretransparenttocalculate/forecast.BAPGservesasaproxyforenterpriselevelreturnsonnewlyinvestedcapital.WerecentlyraisedourE&Psectorviewstoreflectanoutlookfordramaticallyimprovedretur