j.p.摩根-铁矿石暴涨20%的背后，需求依然强劲

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1、Completed30Jun201703:56AMEDTDisseminated02Jul201706:00AMEDTGlobalEquityResearch02July2017IronorePricesbounce20%onimprovedsentiment,demandremainsstrong,butnon-traditionalsupplyincreasesTakeawaysfromourmonthlyreviewoftheironoremarketare:1)globalLatAmBasicMaterialsdemandremainsstrong,wit

2、hChinesesteelproductionrunningat850MtpainACRodolfoAngele,CFAMay,andapparentdemandup7%YoY,2)supplycontinuestorisewith(55-11)4950-3888Chinadomesticproduction+20%YoY,andnon-traditionalexports+15%rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.comYoY,and3)priceshaverecoveredtoUS$65/tfromarecentlowofUS$53/tBloo

3、mbergJPMAANGELEinMay,whichispartlysentimentdriven(SHIBORdown/ChinaJunePMIBancoJ.P.MorganS.A.backupto51.7).WeexpectpricestoberelativelywellsupportedneartermasLucasFerreiraIndia’smonsoonseasonlimitsexports,andongoingpressureonmarginal(55-11)4950-3629mines.OurUS$67/tforecastfor2017is

4、unchanged.lucas.x.ferreira@jpmorgan.comBancoJ.P.MorganS.A.Demandremainsstrong.Globalsteelproductionrose2.4%YoY,butisupAustraliaMetals&Mining~4.6%YTD/YTD.Chinesesteelproductionranata851MtparateinMay,LyndonFaganACup2.5%YoY,butdownontheall-timerecordof885MtpainApril.China(61-2)9003-8648

5、steelnetexportsremainaround70Mtpa,withapparentdemandstillupalyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.comsolid7%YoY.InChina,thepropertysectorcontinuestolookhealthy,withBloombergJPMALFAGANresidentialpricesstillrising,andfloorspacestartsup8.4%YoY.TotalFAIJ.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimitedgrowthof8.6%

6、YoYremainsrobust,butdownfrompeaklevels.LookingEuropeMetals&MiningACforward,ourChinaeconomistsexpectthedatatocontinuetoweakeninFraserJamiesontermsofgrowthmomentum,butremainsolidinabsoluteterms.(44-20)7742-5930fraser.jamieson@jpmorgan.comSupplyresponsestillplayingout.Non-traditionalsup

7、plycontinuestobeBloombergJPMAJAMIESONthemainheadwindinourview,withChinadomesticsupplyup~20%YoY,J.P.MorganSecuritiesplcandnon-traditionalexportstoChinaup~15%YoY.Whilethemajors’DominicO'Kanegrowthis2Hweighted,weexpectapartialoffsetresultingfromtheIndian(44-20)7742-6729dominic.j.okan

8、e@jpm