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1、23January2020EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesVisa&MastercardDeepDiveExpandingMoatsoftheFour-PartyModelSpecialtyFinance
3、CommentBestbusinessesinPayments:WhilebothVisaandMastercardcurrentlytradeattheResearchAnalystshighendoftheiraverageNTMP/Erangesandrelativetotheiraveragepremiumsvs.theS&P
4、500,webelievethenetworksareamongthebestbusinessesinPaymentsandMosheOrenbuchexpectbothtocontinuecompoundingatlow-tomid-teensrevenueandmid-tohigh-teens2125386795EPSgrowthoverthemediumtolongerterm.Ourconfidenceisbolsteredbybothnetworks’moshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.comTAMexpansionbeyondtheirco
5、reconsumer-to-businessretailpayments,particularlypush-TimothyChiodo,CFAto-card(e.g.,VisaDirect,MastercardSend),B2Bpayments,andbill-pay.2123254761timothy.chiodo@credit-suisse.comSlightpreferenceforVisa:AlthoughweratebothstocksOutperform,wemaintainaslightpreferenceforVisagivenacombinationofr
6、elativevaluationsupport(VisacurrentlyNikCremotradesat~2xitsthree-yearaveragediscounttoMastercardonanNTMP/Ebasis),paired2123254764withourexpectationforVisatoclosetheorganicex-FXrevenuegrowthgapinCY2021nikolai.cremo@credit-suisse.comdrivenby(1)thelappingofthisyear’s(FY2020)step-upinincentive
7、s(~50%ofvolumesJustinForsythe,CPArenewedwithinthe2yearsperiodending1H2020–unprecedentedrenewalactivity);(2)2123256512stabilizationofshareinEuropeafter~900bpsoflossesfrom2014to2018,alongwithjustin.forsythe@credit-suisse.comnetyieldbenefitsfrombothpricingandvalue-addedservicesalesenabledbyth
8、emigrationHoangNguyentotheglobalVisaNetplatform(e.g.,fraud,authorization,risktools);and(3)expectations2123253357foroutsizedbenefits(relativetoMastercard)fromthenascentUScontactlessrolloutgivenhoang.nguyen@credit-suisse.comitsgreaterUSmix.NetworksDeepDive:Webelievethatthemajorityofdriversfo
9、rthetwocompaniesaresecularandsharedin-nature,andtherearenuancesevenwithinthesharedfactors(relatedtomix,legacystrengths,andstrategy).WeprovideadetailedoverviewofthemostimportantgrowthdriversforVisaandMastercardincluding:1)regionalmix(MA~65%outsidetheUSvs.~55%fo
