资源描述:
《糖和甜味剂展望:随着墨西哥产量预测的下调,美国糖供应和库存趋紧.docx》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、ApprovedbyUSDA’sWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardEconomicResearchService
2、SituationandOutlookReportSSS-M-379
3、March16,2020NextreleaseisApril15,2020SugarandSweetenersOutlookMichaelMcConnell,coordinatorDavidOlson,contributorU.S.SugarSuppliesandEndingStocksTightenWithReducedMexicoProductionForecastsIn
4、theMarchWorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE),Mexicosugarproductionfor2019/20isreducedsubstantiallyduetocontinuedpooryieldsandrecoveryratesasitpassesthehalfwaymarkintheharvestseason.Withlessproduction,Mexico’sexportsarelowered,aswell—particularlyexportstotheUnitedStates.U.S.sugarsu
5、ppliesfor2019/20arealsoreduced,aslessbeetsugarproductionandlowerimportsfromMexicoareonlyslightlyoffsetbyhigherhigh-tiertariffimports.ProjectionsforU.S.domesticdeliveriesandexportsareunchanged,resultinginsubstantiallylowerendingstocksandaverytightmarket,byhistoricalstandards.U.S.sugarsupply,us
6、e,andendingstocks,2006/07to2019/201,000STRV16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0002006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/19(est.)2019/20(proj.)0EndingstocksTotalsupplyTotaluseSource:USDA,WorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.MexicoOutlookLowYield
7、sandRecoveryRatesLowerMexicoProductionForecastsUnfavorableweatherconditionshavecontinuedtoimpactMexico’ssugarcanesector,reducingtheoutlookforsugarproductionfromthe2019/20crop.Droughtconditionsthroughthesummerandfallof2019haveresultedinloweryields.Additionally,rainthroughoutthepeakharvestseaso
8、nhasresultedinaslowpaceofharvestingthecropandhasnegativelyimpactedrecoveryrates.TheUSDAprojectsMexicosugarproductionat5.200millionmetrictons,actualvalue(MT)intheMarchWorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE),a472,000-MTdecreasefromthepreviousmonth.TheprojectionisbasedonMexico’sharvesti
9、ngabout780,000hectares,whichwouldbelowerthanthepreviousyear’srecordtotalbutinlinewithrecenthistoricalaverages.TheMexicosugarcanecropisoftenstronglyinfluencedbyhowthelatterportionoftheharvestseasonperforms.IfdryweatherconditionspersistthroughM