耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本Financial-MarketsLecture-04-Transcript.doc

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1、FinancialMarkets:Lecture4TranscriptProfessorRobertShiller:Today'slectureisaboutportfoliodiversificationandaboutsupportingfinancialinstitutions,notablymutualfunds.It'sactuallykindofacrusadeofmine--Ibelievethattheworldneedsmoreportfoliodiversification.Thatmightsoundtoyoualittlebitodd,butIt

2、hinkit'sabsolutelytruethatthesamekindofcausethatEmmettThompsongoesthrough,whichistohelpthepoorpeopleoftheworld,canbeadvancedthroughportfoliodiversification--Iseriouslymeanthat.Therearealotofhumanhardshipsthatcanbesolvedbydiversifyingportfolios.WhatI'mgoingtotalkabouttodayappliesnotjustto

3、comfortablewealthypeople,butitappliestoeveryone.It'sreallyaboutrisk.Whenthere'sabadoutcomeforanyone,that'stheoutcomeofsomerandomdraw.Whenpeoplegetintorealtroubleintheirlives,it'sbecauseofasequenceofbadeventsthatpushthemintounfortunatepositionsand,veryoften,financialriskmanagementispartof

4、thethingthatpreventsthatfromhappening.Thefirst--letmego--Iwanttostartthislecturewithsomemathematics.It'sacontinuationofthesecondlecture,whereItalkedabouttheprincipleofdispersalofrisk.Iwantnowtocarrythatforwardintosomethingalittlebitmorefocusedontheportfolioproblem.I'mgoingtostartthislect

5、urewithadiscussionofhowoneconstructsaportfolioandwhatarethemathematicsofit.Thatwillleadusintothecapitalassetpricingmodel,whichisthecornerstoneofalotofthinkinginfinance.I'mgoingtogothroughthisratherquicklybecausethereareothercoursesatYalethatwillcoverthismorethoroughly,notably,JohnGeanako

6、plos'sEcon251.Ithinkwecangetthebasicpointshere.Let'sstartwiththebasicidea.Iwanttojustsayitinthesimplestpossibleterms.Whatisitthat--Firstofall,aportfolio,let'sdefinethat.Aportfolioisthecollectionofassetsthatyouhave--financialassets,tangibleassets--it'syourwealth.Thefirstandfundamentalprin

7、cipleis:youcareonlyaboutthetotalportfolio.Youdon'twanttobesomeonelikethefishermanwhoboastsaboutonebigfishthathecaughtbecauseit'snot--we'retalkingaboutlivelihoods.It'sallthefishthatyoucaught,sothere'snothingtobeproudofifyouhadonebigsuccess.That'sthefirstverybasicprinciple.