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1、FinancialMarkets:Lecture10TranscriptProfessorRobertShiller:BeforeIbegin,IjustwantedtosaythatIwasvery--Ifoundlastperiod'slecturewithDavidSwensenveryinteresting.Also,IlikedbeingserenadedbyNewBlue,whichisafirstexperienceforme.Swensen--Hegave,Ithought,averyinterestingtalk.I'veheardhimtalkbeforebutit
2、'salwaysinteresting.Hereallyemphasizeddiversification.But,Idon'tknowwhatyouwerethinking,wegota28%portfolioreturnlastyear.There'ssomethingelsegoingonbesidesdiversification;diversificationmeanswegettheaveragereturn.AndIwasgladthatyouaskedquestionsattheend.Someofyourquestionsseemedtodrawoutotherthi
3、ngsthathedoesn'tplantotalkabout,likewhathereallydidtomakemoney.OnethingwasthathesaidthattheyshortedtheInternetstocksinthelate1990s.That'sabrilliantmarkettimingdevicethat--Ithinkenlightenedpeoplethoughtthatthosepricesweregettinghigh--andalsomadesomeplayoncreditspreadsandnowonrealestate,hesaid.How
4、doeshedoit?Again,it'smytheorythatthere'sno--youcan'tentirelybetaught,butpartlythoughIthinkthathedoesit,asdoothergoodportfoliomanagers,byjustkeepingaverybroadbaseofknowledgeandlisteningtopeopleandcollectinginformationandwatchingthebigtrendsandthinkingaboutthem.Oneof,Ithink,Swensen'sbesttalentsish
5、e'sagoodlistenerandheincorporatesbasicfactsandactsonthem.Youmighthave--itwouldbeincorrect,Ithink,inlisteningtowhathesaidandconcludethathejustsaysdiversifybecausehe'sobviouslydonesomethingverydifferentfromthat.Bytheway,IhaveanotherspeakerwhotoldmethathewouldliketotalktoourclassandIhopewecanworkit
6、out.HisnameisCarlIcahn,whoisoneofthebiggestWallStreet--powerfulandenlightenedpeopleonWallStreet--whocanalsomaybetellussomethingabouthowhemakesmoneyorhowhemakesitabetterworld.Theproblemisthathehasa--thesepeoplehaveverytightschedulesandhe'sinvolvedinvarioustakeoversandthingsrightnow.Hesaidhecouldd
7、oitifwecouldarrangetomeetafter3:00p.m.,soI'mgoingto--onaMondayoraWednesday,perhapsat3:00 p.m.orlater.Hesaid--hisassistantsaiditmightevenbe7:00p.m.,sothat'sthewayheworks.Idon'tthinkhegetsupat9:00a.m.,apparently.So,Itakethatth
