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ID:52565375
大小:1.35 MB
页数:33页
时间:2020-04-10
《《行为金融学入门》井泽教授LectureRationality.ppt》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。
1、FromtheviewpointoftheExpectedUtilityTheoryBehavioralFinanceOutline1-1.RationalityinEconomicTheory1-2.RationalitywithoutUncertainty:HomoEconomics2-1.RationalityunderUncertainty:ExpectedUtilityTheory2-2.IrrationalityunderUncertainty3-1.AxiomaticsystemsoftheE
2、xpectedUtilityTheory3-2.ExperimentalTestsoftheExpectedUtilityTheory4-1.RiskpreferenceandCertaintyEquivalent4-2.HowtoMeasureRiskPreference:BDMMethod5-1.SubjectiveProbabilityintheExpectedUtilityTheory5-2.ElicitationofSubjectiveProbability6-1.PortfolioSelecti
3、onTheory6-2.PortfolioSelectionandNon-ExpectedTheoryOUTLINEArewerationalaseconomistspresume?Isyourdecisionmakingdifferent,underorwithoutuncertainty?“Greedisgood,”yelledMichaelDouglasinthemovieWallStreet(1987).But,arewereallysogreed,andselfish?Instructionoft
4、hegameResponderProposerPerfectstrangers$5isgiventobothHowmuchdoyoutakefrom$5?Therestof$5Doyouaccept?Ifyes,thentheproposalwillberealized.Ifno,thenbothwillgetnothing.TheUltimatumGameYouGet$(A-B)TheOtherGet$BTheOtherAnonymousBothGetNothingDecide$B$Arejectacce
5、ptIfyouandtheothersubjectarerational,youshouldgivetheminimumamount(say,1cent),andtheothershouldacceptit.Gambler'sfallacyHeads?orTails?NowLet’sPlay!100万円110万円90万円100万円120万円80万円70万円130万円110万円90万円100万円120万円140万円60万円80万円14641Doyouunderstandthefairness?RandomWa
6、lk“Fair”means“unpredictableforanyone”.TheBankofSwedenPrizeinEconomicSciencesinMemoryofAlfredNobel2002DanielKahnemanVernonL.SmithLessonsfromthegamesMancannotlivebymoneyalone.Wehavethesenseoffairness.Weliveinthemixtureofaltruismandself-interest.Cognitiveabil
7、ityofriskanduncertaintyisbounded.Wecanbeinconsistentintheperceprionofriskunduncertainty.superstructurePERSON&SOCIRTYECONOMICSYSTEMbasestructureConventionalviewofeconomicsBehavioralApproachPERSON&SOCIRTYECONOMICSYSTEMANDWearenotcomputers….Whatis“rational”?D
8、oyouwantthemoremoney?Doyouwantonlythemoremoney?Youhaveinterestinmoney.Youhavenotinterestonlyinmoney.Youhaveinterestinmoney.Youhaveinterestonlyinmoney.Issueofchoiceamongaxioms(systemsofpresumptions)consistentc
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