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1、TheLongTelegramGeorgeKennanMoscow22February1946AnswertoDept’s284,Feb.3,11involvesquestionssointricate,sodelicate,sostrangetoourformofthought,andsoimportanttoanalysisofourinternationalenvironmentthatIcannotcompressanswersintosinglebriefmessagewithoutyieldingtowhatIfeelwould
2、bedangerousdegreeofoversimplification.Ihope,therefore,DeptwillbearwithmeifIsubmitinanswertothisquestionfiveparts,subjectsofwhichwillberoughlyasfollows:(1)BasicfeaturesofpostwarSovietoutlook.(2)Backgroundofthisoutlook.(3)Itsprojectioninpracticalpolicyonofficiallevel.(4)Itsp
3、rojectiononunofficiallevel.(5)PracticaldeductionsfromstandpointofUSpolicy.Iapologizeinadvanceforthisburdeningoftelegraphicchannel;butquestionsinvolvedareofsuchurgentimportance,particularlyinviewofrecentevents,thatouranswerstothem,iftheydeserveattentionatall,seemtometodeser
4、veitatonce.Therefollows:Part1:BasicFeaturesofPostwarSovietOutlookasPutForwardbyOfficialPropagandaMachine,AreasFollows(a)USSRstilllivesinantagonistic"capitalistencirclement"withwhichinthelongruntherecanbenopermanentpeacefulcoexistence.AsstatedbyStalinin1927toadelegationofAm
5、ericanworkers:"Incourseoffurtherdevelopmentofinternationalrevolutiontherewillemergetwocentersofworldsignificance:asocialistcenter,drawingtoitselfthecountrieswhichtendtowardsocialism,andacapitalistcenter,drawingtoitselfthecountriesthatinclinetowardcapitalism.Battlebetweenth
6、esetwocentersforcommandofworldeconomywilldecidefateofcapitalismandofcommunisminentireworld.(b)Capitalistworldisbesetwithinternalconflicts,inherentinnatureofcapitalistsociety.Theseconflictsareinsolublebymeansofpeacefulcompromise.GreatestofthemisthatbetweenEnglandandUS.(c)In
7、ternalconflictsofcapitalisminevitablygeneratewars.Warsthusgeneratedmaybeoftwokinds:intra-capitalistwarsbetweentwocapitaliststatesandwarsofinterventionagainstsocialistworld.Smartcapitalists,vainlyseekingescapefrominnerconflictsofcapitalism,inclinetowardlatter.(d)Interventio
8、nagainstUSSR,whileitwouldbedisastroustothosewhoundertookit,wouldcausereneweddelayinprogre
