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1、Inthispaper,amodelisestablishedtoprovideameasureoftheabilityofaregiontoprovidecleanwatertomeettheneedsofitspopulation,andfindoutthereasonforthelackofwaterresources.Specifictasksareasfollows:ForTask1:Weestablishamodel.Inthemodel,wethinkthesupplyofcleanwate
2、rdependsontheamountofsurfacewater,undergroundwaterandsewagepurification.Thewaterrequirementsaredecidedbytheamountoflifewater,agriculturalwaterandindustrialwaterintheregion.Inwatersupply,surfacewaterisaffectedbytheannualaveragetemperature,annualaverageprec
3、ipitationandforestcoveragerate.Thegroundwaterisimpactedbytheannualaveragetemperature,annualaverageprecipitation.Theagriculturalwaterisaffectedbythepopulationoftheregionandannualaverageprecipitation.TheGDPoftheregioninfluencestheindustrialwaterconsumption.
4、Weusetheprincipleofmultivariatenonlinearregressiontofindouttheregressioncoefficient.Andthenmakesureitsfunction.Theratioofwatersupplyandwaterrequirementsisusedasameasureoftheabilityofaregiontoprovidecleanwater.Wefindthattheabilityofaregiontoprovidecleanwat
5、erisgoodornotbycomparingtheratiowith1.ForTask2:ThemodelselectstheShandongProvinceofChinaasthetestingregion.WeanalysethedataofChina'sShandongareabetween2005and2014,andthencrystallizethemodelthroughthethoughtofthefunctionfittingandmultivariatenonlinearregre
6、ssion.Bythemodel,wethinkShandongprovince'sabilitytoprovidecleanwaterisweak.Andthenfromtwoaspectswhichphysicalshortageandshortageofeconomic,thispaperanalysesthecausesofwatershortageinShandongProvince,andthustesttheapplicabilityofthemodel.ForTask3:Weselects
7、everalfactorsaffectingwatersupplyandwaterdemandbadly,whichisannualprecipitation,annualaveragetemperature,theforestcoveragerateandpopulationforecast.WeanalysethedataofChina'sShandongareabetween2005and2014,accordingwhichtopredictthechangesofthosefactorsin15
8、years.AfterthatthispaperusesthemodeltoanalysethesituationofShandong’swaterin15years.ForTask4:AccordingtothemodelinTask1andtheanalysisoftheTask2.WefindthemainfactorsinfluencingtheabilitytoprovidecleanwaterinChina'sSh
