06美赛建模论文

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1、TeamControlNumberForofficeuseonlyT1T2T3T4186ForofficeuseonlyFlF2F3F4ProblemChosen"~C2005MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM)SummarySheet(Attachacopyofthispagetoeachcopyofyoursolutionpaper.)Typeasummaryofyourresultsonthispage.Donotincludethenameofyourschool,advisor,orteammembersonthispage.Summ

2、aryThispaperaimstopredictthedepletionofcmdeoilreserve.Inourprediction,weanalyzetherelationshipbetweenproduction,reserveandsomeexogenousfactorsindetail.AnalyzingthedatafromwebsiteofOrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)andU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),weproposethreemodels

3、toforecasttheannualpetroleumproductionandpeakproductionyears-Ourfirstmodelisashort-termpredictionforregionalannualproductioilBasedontheHubbertmodel,weobtainadifferentialequationforthecumulativeproduction.Usingtheleastsquaresfits,weobtainthevaluesofparametersforthedifferentialequation.Solvin

4、gtheequation,wegetaroughpredictionoftheoilproduction.Thesecondoneisusedforlong-termforecast.Firstly,wemodeltheaccumulativediscoverybylogisticregression;thenweintroducethereserve-to-productionratioconcepttodescribetherelationshipbetweenthereserveandproduction;finally,wedesignarecursionoftime

5、topredicttheproductionyearbyyear.Accordingtothevariationofreserve-to-productionratio,weconsidertwoscenariosandfindthepeakyearofproductionis2010and2015respectivelyandeventilltheyearof2100,theannualproductioncanbeatthelevelof5.5billionbarrels.Thethirdmodeltakessomeexogenousfactorsimpactingpro

6、ductionintoaccount.Wedividethosefactorsintothreecategories:Supplyfactors,DemandfactorsandModulationfactors.Choosingfourmainfactors,wefiguredouthowtheyimpactproductionbyNeuralNetworkmethod.Thenwecheckthetrendofproductionvariationandthepeakyearofthismodel,andfindthatourpredictionagreesclosely

7、withJeanLahrrere?spredictionaswellastheforecastofthesecondmodel.Basingonourmodel,weproposerecommendationstoensurethesustainableusageandsecurityofoilresource.Finally,wedesignpoliciestocontroltheenvironmentalefleetsandtoencouragethenewenergyandenergy-effic