汇率影响因素基于中美的分析案例

《汇率影响因素基于中美的分析案例》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、WhatfactorsshouldbetakenintoaccountindeterminingtheequilibriumRMB/Dollarexchangerate?Why?China’seconomicalsituationpurchasingpowerparityInterestrateparitytheoryThecurrentaccountbalanceOtherfactorsfactorseffectingexchangeratesChina’seconomicalsituationaveragelabourproductiv

2、ity7.4%purchasingpowerparitye=Pa/Pb(emeansexchangerate,foracountryisadirectquotation)ore=P/Pf%e=%P-%Pf(thedifferencebetweenthetwocountries’inflationrate)Realexchangerate=nominalexchangerate×CPIUS/CPICexchangeratewiththebaseof1994年份CPIUS/CPICCPI差值（∏c-∏us）等式左边数据(Et-Et-1)/

3、Et-1实际汇率=名义汇率*CPIus/CPIc名义汇率19941.0021.548.628.6219950.8814.27-3.217.338.3519960.835.35-0.446.948.3119970.830.51-0.296.898.2919980.85-2.36-0.137.048.2819990.88-3.61-0.017.308.2820000.91-2.960.007.518.2820010.93-2.15-0.027.678.2820020.95-2.380.007.868.2820030.96-1.080.007.9

4、48.2820040.951.24-0.017.858.2820050.96-1.59-2.157.808.1020060.98-1.63-2.057.777.9420070.961.95-5.077.267.56Comparedwiththeratewithyear1997asbasis年份美国CPI（以1997年为基年）中国CPI（以1997年为基年）CPIUS/CPIC实际汇率=名义汇率*CPIUS/CPIC名义汇率199492.3476.701.2010.388.62199594.9589.821.068.838.35199697.

5、7697.281.008.368.311997100.00100.001.008.298.291998101.5699.201.028.488.281999103.8097.811.068.798.282000107.2998.201.099.048.282001110.3498.891.129.248.282002112.0998.101.149.468.282003114.6499.281.159.568.282004117.69103.151.149.448.282005121.68105.001.169.398.102006125.

6、61106.681.189.357.942007129.18111.811.168.737.56ContrastanalysisreallifeisagainstLowofonepriceGoodsmonopolyoligopolymarketbehaviorthedifferencebetweentheofficialinflationmeasureShort-termpricestickinessnotmeettherelativepurchasingpowerparity?InterestrateparitytheoryClosere

7、lationshipinterestrateExchangerateFandI-I*isproportionalDiagramAddYourTitle2003—2009中、没贷款利率（季度平均）%中国银行美国银行利差F2003第一季度5.314.251.068.2776第二季度5.314.251.078.2771第三季度5.3141.318.2772第四季度5.3141.318.27692004第一季度5.3141.318.2771第二季度5.3141.318.2769第三季度5.314.420.898.2769第四季度5.54.940.5

8、68.27652005第一季度5.585.440.148.2765第二季度5.585.91-0.338.2765第三季度5.586.43-0.858.14第四季度5.586.97