understanding usda corn and soybean production forecasts英文学习材料

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1、UnderstandingUSDACornandSoybeanProductionForecasts:AnOverviewofMethods,PerformanceandMarketImpactsbyDarrelL.GoodandScottH.IrwinUnderstandingUSDACornandSoybeanProductionForecasts:AnOverviewofMethods,PerformanceandMarketImpactsbyDarrelL.GoodandScottH.Irwin1October2003Upd

2、ated:January2004AgMASProjectResearchReport2003-071DarrelL.GoodandScottH.IrwinareProfessorsintheDepartmentofAgriculturalandConsumerEconomicsattheUniversityofIllinoisatUrbana-Champaign.TheauthorsappreciatetheresearchassistanceofThorstenEgelkrautandOlgaIsengildinainassemb

3、lingthedatausedforthisstudy.RichAllenofNASSprovidedvaluableinformationaboutNASScropforecastingprocedures.ThismaterialisbaseduponworksupportedbytheEconomicResearchService,U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,underProjectNo.43-3AEK-8-80106.Anyopinions,findings,conclusions,orrecom

4、mendationsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewoftheU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture.UnderstandingUSDACornandSoybeanProductionForecasts:AnOverviewofMethods,PerformanceandMarketImpactsAbstractThepurposeofthisreportistoimproveundersta

5、ndingofUSDAcropforecastingmethods,performanceandmarketimpact.AreviewofUSDA’sforecastingproceduresandmethodologyconfirmedtheobjectivityandconsistencyoftheforecastingprocessovertime.Nochangesinmethodologyoccurredin2003.Month-to-monthchangesincornandsoybeanproductionforec

6、astsfrom1970through2003indicatedlittledifferenceinmagnitudeanddirectionofmonthlychangesovertime.USDAproductionforecasterrorswerelargestinAugustandsmallerinsubsequentforecasts.Thereappearedtobenotrendinthesizeordirectionofforecasterrorsovertime.Onaverage,USDAcornproduct

7、ionforecastsweremoreaccuratethanprivatemarketforecastsover1970-2003,withtheexceptionofAugustforecastssincethemid-1980s.PrivatemarketforecastsinsoybeansweremoreaccuratethanUSDAforecastsforAugust,regardlessofthetimeperiodconsidered.AsthegrowingseasonprogressestheUSDA’sre

8、lativeaccuracyinsoybeansimproved.USDAcornproductionforecastshadthelargestimpactoncornfuturespricesinAugustandrecentpr