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1、UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureNationalAgriculturalStatisticsServiceUnderstandingUSDAandOfficeoftheChiefEconomist,WorldCropForecastsAgriculturalOutlookBoardMiscellaneousPublicationNo.1554UnderstandingCropStatistics.FredericA.Vogel,NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService,andGeraldA
2、.Bange,WorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard,OfficeoftheChiefEconomist,U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture.MiscellaneousPublicationNo.1554.AbstractEachmonth,theU.S.DepartmentofAgriculturepublishesstatisticsandrelatedinformationaboutcropproductionintheUnitedStatesandtheworld.SeveralUSDAagenciesarere
3、sponsibleforpreparingthesestatistics.ThemethodologyusedbytheNationalAgriculturalStatisticsServicetopreparethecropforecastsisdescribedtogivetheuserofthesedataabetterunderstandingofthestrengthsandweaknesses.Thisisfollowedbyasimilardescriptionoftheworldagriculturesupplyanddemandestimat
4、espreparedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.PrefaceThecropsupplyanddemandestimatespreparedbytheUSDAarecrucialtobothpolicymakersingovernmentandpeopleinvolvedinmakingdecisionsaboutmarketingandinvesting.Intoday’sinformationage,thestatisticalmethodsdescribedwithinthispaperprovidetheben
5、chmarkagainstwhichallotherdatasourcesarecompared.Theagenciesinvolvedhaveasolidrecordofobjectivityandabilitytomeetestablishedreportdates.ThisobjectivityispreservedbecauseitisUSDApolicytomakeitso.TheSecretaryofAgriculture’sofficeisbriefedabouttheresultsonlyafterthefinalresultshavebeen
6、completedandpreparedfordistributiontothepublic.Thesecurityofthedatabeforereleaseisfiercelydefendedwithextraordinaryeffortstoensurethereisnoprematuredisclosureofanyoftheinformation.Hopefullythisreportwillanswerthemanyquestionsoftenraisedabouthowtheestimatesofproduction,supplyanddeman
7、daregenerated.EEOstatementTheUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture(USDA)prohibitsdiscriminationinallitsprogramsonthebasisofrace,color,nationalorigin,gender,religion,age,disability,politicalbeliefs,sexualorientation,andmaritalorfamilystatus.(Notallprohibitedbasesapplytoallprograms.)Per
8、sonswithdisabilitie
